[Skybird]

If they think the US is not bluffing but will fight over Taiwan, the war will see early and maybe even will open with strikes on Okinawa and Diega Garcia as well as - if possible - attempts to kill the carrier battle groups. Everythign else would be madness, you cannot go to war with the US Navy and Air Force and then leave the initiative to them, thats stupid, the USN and USAF is too dagerous for that. To what degree they also strike bases in the Phillipines and Australia remaisn to be seen. That they also go at South Korea early I am not so certain of because SK is balancing between China and the US and avoids to openly confront China diplomatically - China may hope to keep SK out of the war and have NK as a threat that SK must focus on to contain.



Or they strangle Taiwan by blockading it completely, leaving it to the US to try to break the blockade - which necessarily then would take place on the playing field of China'S choosing: the Taiwan strait and the waters around Taiwan and so putting every American unit going there into harms way. And this harm is not fangs and claws, but missiles, missiles, and more missiles. Sea-launched. Land-launched. Air launched. Big missiles, medium missiles, very big missiles. Carrier sinking missiles. In quantities that the US logistics chains to Taiwan could not compete with.



How American submarines can do close to Taiwan, remains to be seen, too. Too many dogs are every rabbit's death, and the Americans would be seriously outnumbered by pretty much evertyhing. Also, the waters close to the continental coast are shallow.



Nobody seems to want to hear it int he west, butr I must say: as I see it, on the military side everything speaks against America in such a war. Its lines are overstretched, its forces too few, its stockpiled quanitiesa ins mmart ammo - like in every nation - too small. And China is not a technologically inferior foe. Supply lines of Chinese units in the zone around Taiwan: 100-250 km. American supply lines - well... That means Chinese units will spend much more time in combat than American units, adding to the numerical advantages.



China has the choice. By how they hold their exercises right now, I assume it will be the second option: blockade. And maybe they just deceive us to think so. Or Xi is as insane as so many other autocrats before him, and does something against the military advice of his admirals.