[Rockstar]

Welcome to World War III


War and Interest Rates

Zoltan Pozsar
212 538 3779 zoltan.pozsar@credit-suisse.com

https://advisoranalyst.com/wp-conten...st-rates-1.pdf

…Getting right where inflation goes from here is basically a matter of perspective: do you see inflation as cyclical (a messy re-opening after Covid, exacerbated by excessive stimulus) or structural (a messy transition to a multipolar world order, where two great powers are challenging the might and hegemony of the U.S.). If the former, inflation has peaked. If the latter, inflation has barely started, and could actually be understood as an outright instrument of war, for as Lenin said, “the best way to destabilize the capitalist system [is] to debauch the currency”.

Finally, two more notes to close our opening essay about war and inflation...

First, an observation from Pippa Malmgren: “Peter Drucker delayed publishing his book, The End of Economic Man: The Origins of Totalitarianism, until 1939 because he was frightened to say that WWII was about to begin. I feel his angst as I write of my belief that we have already entered WWIII. But before you jump out of your skin, try to remember that war is changing: the confrontations and conflicts of our time may be different from what we experienced before. [...] New theaters of conflict are no longer exclusively about physical territory and humans on a front line, but about cyberspace, space and the high seas,” as well as pipelines, interbank messaging systems (SWIFT), ASML machines, currencies, commodities, and inflation as described in our opening essay above.