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Skybird · 08-01-22, 11:09 AM

https://edition.cnn.com/2022/08/01/p...sit/index.html

Chinese interceptors are scrambling to shoot her down.

It seems she wants to indeed force the US to clear its position over Taiwan. "Strategic ambiguity" is nonsense. Its nonsense when Bubble Olaf used it to explain his back-and-forth manouvering towards Putin before the war, and its nonsense with the US's stand regarding Taiwan. Strategic ambiguity signals only one thing: that one is weaseling and plays clever wordgames because one is scared out of one's pants.
Western dependency on Taiwan's chip production is more threatening than our dependency on Russian gas. Same goes for Europe's dependency on pharmaceuticals and medical supplies from Asia, namely India.

Der Tagesspiegel writes:

Is Europe and the U.S. threatening a two-front war against China and Russia - triggered by a dramatic clumsiness of U.S. policy? On August 1, of all days, tensions with Beijing are growing over plans by U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi to visit Taiwan.

On the founding day of the People's Army, China celebrates its imperial ambition with nationalist rhetoric. It views democratic Taiwan as a renegade province with no right to its own foreign policy.

China threatens to intercept Pelosi's plane. "If you play with fire, you will get burned," President Xi warned Joe Biden by phone. Now China is holding live ammunition maneuvers opposite the island of Taiwan.

Viewed from Germany, Taiwan may seem far away. And the conflict over its status under international law and the future of its democracy may seem secondary.

An outbreak of war is likely to change that in a flash. It would ominously exacerbate Europe's precarious security situation and economic and political blackmail vulnerability, which the fighting in Ukraine has exposed.

The dependence on strategically important goods from Asia, from semiconductors for the auto industry to pharmaceuticals, is even higher than that on Russian gas. And how will Europe stand up to Russia militarily when the United States is focusing its forces on the conflict in the Pacific? The success of the Ukrainian counterforce owes more to U.S. assistance than to Europe.

The escalation in Taiwan is a double alarm signal for Germany and the EU: In the short term, the threat of war must be averted. In the medium term, they must review all areas of their relations with China to see where existential dependencies threaten and reduce them. Experts have long been warning of a war over Taiwan.

The current situation can be eased. The future is uncertain.

Europe has little influence on the current escalation. It is reassuring that Biden and Xi spoke on the phone for more than two hours. Their goal is détente. Domestic crises are putting so much pressure on both that they must avoid a war over Taiwan at all costs.

Here as there, the economy is the biggest concern. The US faces the twin threats of inflation and recession. China's zero-covid strategy has failed. In the absence of growth, there is no money to combat the many structural problems and keep citizens happy with prosperity gains.

The residual risk of escalation comes from Xi and his nationalist zeal. Biden's popularity would not grow through another war. Xi wants to stay at the top for longer than ten years, contrary to the usual limits on power, and needs the party's blessing to do so.
Pelosi made a mistake, but the real danger comes from Xi

The danger of war over Taiwan will not diminish in the next few years. China bears most of the blame.

Pelosi cannot be blamed for wanting to visit Taiwan. Predecessors have done so, and so have European politicians. Democracies must stand together and show that.

Pelosi's mistake was her insensitive choice of date after the original trip was canceled in the spring because of Covid. Her visit may be postponed again. It must not be cancelled, certainly not after the unacceptable threats to shoot down her plane.

Germany and Europe must now do everything to ensure that their ability to act in the event of a Taiwan war does not suffer from economic dependencies as in the case of Ukraine. Taiwan is a front-runner in semiconductor production, but so far has not met Europe's requests to move some of its manufacturing to the EU.
Deal: Assistance for Taiwan in exchange for building a chip factory in Europe

Why not counter deals that benefit everyone, along the lines of Taiwan getting more political and military support from Europe and the U.S. if it builds chip factories here.

This also serves peace. China could then not speculate that the West would not stand by Taiwan in the event of an attack because it fears for the supply of vital goods from Asia.

08-01-22, 11:09 AM	#234
Skybird Soaring Join Date: Sep 2001 Location: the mental asylum named Germany Posts: 42,776 Downloads: 10 Uploads: 0	https://edition.cnn.com/2022/08/01/p...sit/index.html Chinese interceptors are scrambling to shoot her down. It seems she wants to indeed force the US to clear its position over Taiwan. "Strategic ambiguity" is nonsense. Its nonsense when Bubble Olaf used it to explain his back-and-forth manouvering towards Putin before the war, and its nonsense with the US's stand regarding Taiwan. Strategic ambiguity signals only one thing: that one is weaseling and plays clever wordgames because one is scared out of one's pants. Western dependency on Taiwan's chip production is more threatening than our dependency on Russian gas. Same goes for Europe's dependency on pharmaceuticals and medical supplies from Asia, namely India. Der Tagesspiegel writes: Is Europe and the U.S. threatening a two-front war against China and Russia - triggered by a dramatic clumsiness of U.S. policy? On August 1, of all days, tensions with Beijing are growing over plans by U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi to visit Taiwan. On the founding day of the People's Army, China celebrates its imperial ambition with nationalist rhetoric. It views democratic Taiwan as a renegade province with no right to its own foreign policy. China threatens to intercept Pelosi's plane. "If you play with fire, you will get burned," President Xi warned Joe Biden by phone. Now China is holding live ammunition maneuvers opposite the island of Taiwan. Viewed from Germany, Taiwan may seem far away. And the conflict over its status under international law and the future of its democracy may seem secondary. An outbreak of war is likely to change that in a flash. It would ominously exacerbate Europe's precarious security situation and economic and political blackmail vulnerability, which the fighting in Ukraine has exposed. The dependence on strategically important goods from Asia, from semiconductors for the auto industry to pharmaceuticals, is even higher than that on Russian gas. And how will Europe stand up to Russia militarily when the United States is focusing its forces on the conflict in the Pacific? The success of the Ukrainian counterforce owes more to U.S. assistance than to Europe. The escalation in Taiwan is a double alarm signal for Germany and the EU: In the short term, the threat of war must be averted. In the medium term, they must review all areas of their relations with China to see where existential dependencies threaten and reduce them. Experts have long been warning of a war over Taiwan. The current situation can be eased. The future is uncertain. Europe has little influence on the current escalation. It is reassuring that Biden and Xi spoke on the phone for more than two hours. Their goal is détente. Domestic crises are putting so much pressure on both that they must avoid a war over Taiwan at all costs. Here as there, the economy is the biggest concern. The US faces the twin threats of inflation and recession. China's zero-covid strategy has failed. In the absence of growth, there is no money to combat the many structural problems and keep citizens happy with prosperity gains. The residual risk of escalation comes from Xi and his nationalist zeal. Biden's popularity would not grow through another war. Xi wants to stay at the top for longer than ten years, contrary to the usual limits on power, and needs the party's blessing to do so. Pelosi made a mistake, but the real danger comes from Xi The danger of war over Taiwan will not diminish in the next few years. China bears most of the blame. Pelosi cannot be blamed for wanting to visit Taiwan. Predecessors have done so, and so have European politicians. Democracies must stand together and show that. Pelosi's mistake was her insensitive choice of date after the original trip was canceled in the spring because of Covid. Her visit may be postponed again. It must not be cancelled, certainly not after the unacceptable threats to shoot down her plane. Germany and Europe must now do everything to ensure that their ability to act in the event of a Taiwan war does not suffer from economic dependencies as in the case of Ukraine. Taiwan is a front-runner in semiconductor production, but so far has not met Europe's requests to move some of its manufacturing to the EU. Deal: Assistance for Taiwan in exchange for building a chip factory in Europe Why not counter deals that benefit everyone, along the lines of Taiwan getting more political and military support from Europe and the U.S. if it builds chip factories here. This also serves peace. China could then not speculate that the West would not stand by Taiwan in the event of an attack because it fears for the supply of vital goods from Asia. __________________ If you feel nuts, consult an expert.