[Skybird]

Originally Posted by Catfish

Putin has enough conventional if older weapons for a limited war in Europe, if China holds still. He has to mobilize more troops of course.
(Maybe China will intervene though, with who do they want to trade to bolster their own economy. With Russia or North Korea?)

It is declared goal of Xi, since a few years, to make China autark and self-supplying, and to disconnect the core economy from international trading dependencies. The sanctions tried on Russia will strengthen that will. Xi wants Taiwan, no matter the cost, and he will learn from the war now two things: China mjust become more autark, and the first attack must be done with absolutely superior and totally devastating firepower, overwhelming the defender already in the beginning. The Ukraine war possibly has drivben the Chinese attack on Taiwan a bit back in time - but it then will be conducted with much, much more brute force and firepower. Thats the two lessons China learns form this.

And if he does not do it immediately it will come in few years, when the depleted reserves have been filled up again. Making it only harder for all.

Completely agree.

Putin only needs to invent a staged "attack" by Nato on russian soil so he has to "react".

He did so before, from staged assassinations, to faked bomb laying, to the school incident, to "protect" russians in Donbas. He will create the pretext for a general mobilization against the evil invaders, we heard all this before.
"Seit 5 Uhr 45 wird jetzt zurueck [sic!] geschossen!"

Never expect Putin or Medwedew would not do it.

Again, I see it like you.

I only doubt that Europe and especially Bubble-Olaf have understood this. Putin did not cause the crisis Europe is being worn out by, but he accelerated and accentuated them, so does Corona, both are not the origins but catalysts for Europe's self-made many crisis.

Looking only at the conditions in Europoe and ignoring Russia'S capabilties right now, the situation now is extremely right for Russia to try whatever it wants to do regarding Europe. Europe is weak and in disarray, hollowed out, internally split (if it ever was united...), every month new rifts appear and widen, several key governments are either knocked out or are busy with themselves, the economy is in recession and de facto in stagflation, the loans-prices spiral is accelerating every month, the currency is blowing up, the logistic supply chains are disrupted, the militaries are only shadows of their cold war selfs, and the celebrated multi-diverse identity of a stellar ammount of social subgroups in European nations' societies has drastically reduced the needed feeling of shared identity and unity that is precondition to bear a strong resistence will and strength to stand your ground in a fight. Its not a team, its a group of jealous narcissistic self-promoters Europe has to show up with

Russia sees all this - and slobbers. Its decades of intel campaigns to undermine the peace movement, the ultra-right, the anti-atom movement, the left groups, the gender groups (due to their corrosive effect on society and inner politics, not because of their claimed ideals), Brexit, Trump, fascists in Italy, France, weak and indifference in Germany, separatist tendencies in some Eastern European countries, a trend for isolationism in the US - it all pays off for Russia.

Putin is a psychopath, and he made a huge mistake when calculating the war in Ukraine. Possibly because he was ill-advised by his intimidated military advisers. But since then, he has taken control again, calculates the war again, plays the smart game to manipulate Europe and to keep it busy over its energy needs. He has a brutal personality structure, but nevertheless he plays an icy-cold global chess match again, keeps the Europeans running around like hens. And yet, many again expect him to be stupid, to act to his disadvantage (his - not necessarily Russians' !), to comply with rules that are to his disadvantage. Instead he keeps the Europeans runnign around, and slowy lets tim e do its job and corrode soldiarity and unity in the West. That is not the behaviour of a stupid player, but a sly, cold-blooded fox. Will we ever stop underestimating him?

More and more military analysts in the West dare to comment that the ukraine does not have the ressources and manpower to launch the expected real big counter-offensive in the East and South. So, comes time, comes momentum again - for Russia, probably. Russia can live with a long lasting war in the ukraine. Can Europe? Look around on the political stage in Germany, and you know the answer.

Mordered destroyed Arthur's brotherhood of the round table. And, as you said, Europe has come to the end of its golden age after WW2. They call it a Zeitenwende, but still behave as if all this drama of the past years were just an intermezzo that will go over, and after that we return to the previous routines. It won't go that way, its the new reality to stay.

Und Deutschland wird noch lernen, wie man Bauklötze staunt, and not in a positive context. For us in Germany, this year and the next years will be a true revival experience, governed and managed by the Augsburger Puppenkiste.