[Skybird]

The risk that this spreads is still low, imo, as long as Hizbollah does not come up with a new weaponry that does really serious damage to Israeli cities. The two strikes on Haifa and - what was that other city? - may be a hint in that direction, or not, who knows.

I think what they really are after is to create a situation where they must not risk of needing to negotiate with a terrorist organisation in government. I think Israel currently is not willing to attack Syria in an all-out war, nor does Syria wish to be drawn into a war with Israel - they know their equipment is too obsolete to have a chance against the IDF. Iran does not want to attract any further hostile attraction, so thta it can complete it'S nuclear program untouched, and in silence. Currently I think it is most likely that sooner or later this hot issue cools down, and the soldiers (which are no longer the real cause) will return. secret diplomacy is currently on way, Israel has contacted both Iran and Syria via Germany.

If the situation remains hot while Hizbollah demonstrates the ability to strike Israeli city with missiles of this new kind like Haifa and that second city, it is possible that Israel will occupy more or less of Lebanon and tries to annihilate it (the Hezbollah, not Lebanon - there is not much left anyway). If that can be successful must be doubted.

But for the most it all is about avoiding negotations with a Hamas-led government. Olmert also seems to have left a prime directive of Israel, which in the past was to accept prisoner exchanges on the ratio of 1 : several hundreds to get back some of it's people. This directive seems to have been given up, or at least put on ice.

No, there most probably will not be a great-scale international war in the ME, currently. Probability for that is less than 5:95, I think.