DER SPIEGEL:
Natural gas supplies from Russia to Germany and Western Europe are likely to fall drastically in the summer. This was announced by the head of the Federal Network Agency, Klaus Müller, on Monday.
"NorthStream 1 will be serviced in summer, there will probably be no injection," Müller tweeted in response to a SPIEGEL article about EU countries' still-high gas imports from Russia.
This will make it more difficult for Europeans to fill up their gas storage facilities to at least 80 or - as in Germany, for example - even 90 percent before winter. Currently, EU reservoirs are filled to an average of just over 51 percent, with a few percentage points more in this country.
"Last #gasreservoirfilling was 53 percent, which is better than in previous years, but still not good enough," Müller tweeted.
Russia is still one of the leading sources of gas supply for Europeans, with around 1.6 billion cubic meters per week at last count, or about one-fifth of all EU imports.
And Nord Stream 1 is currently by far the most important pipeline for Russian gas supplies to the West.
According to an analysis by the Brussels-based think tank Bruegel, the state monopolist Gazprom recently sent a good 70 percent of its total volume destined for Europe through this pipeline: around 1.2 billion cubic meters per week. By comparison, Germany consumes around 1.6 billion cubic meters in an average week, though much less in the summer.
Whether the Baltic Sea pipeline actually needs maintenance is unclear. Gas market insiders also believe a tactical maneuver by the Kremlin is possible. After all, the worse the Europeans' storage facilities are filled for the winter, the more dependent they will then be on Russian gas. And the greater the fear of bottlenecks on the gas markets, the higher the prices will rise.
On the European wholesale reference market TTF, a megawatt hour for delivery in July rose from 81.25 to 83.90 euros between eight and ten in the morning. However, the price is still a long way from its record highs at the beginning of March, when a megawatt hour cost 300 euros at times.
It is also questionable whether other suppliers can step in and compensate for the shortfall in deliveries. Most recently, Europeans imported the most gas via tankers, according to Bruegel: in the form of liquefied natural gas (LNG). Norway was the second most important supplier.
It is not yet known how long the maintenance work will last. The head of the Federal Network Agency, Müller, said late Monday morning that maintenance usually takes about two weeks.
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BBC:
New research shows Russia earned nearly €100bn from exports of oil and gas during the first 100 days of the conflict in Ukraine – although its revenues declined in May.
The report, from the independent Centre For Research on Energy and Clean Air also warns about potential loopholes in efforts by the EU and the US to limit imports from Russia.
Exports of Russian oil and gas are falling and Moscow’s revenues from energy sales have also declined from a peak of well over $1bn a day in March.
But they remain very high by historical standards – and still exceed widely publicised estimates of the cost of the Ukraine war.
The report says the EU’s planned oil embargo will have a significant impact. But it warns that large quantities of Russian crude are now being shipped to India, where they are being refined and sold on – often to customers in the US and Europe.
The report also points out that as Russia seeks new markets for oil, much of it is being transported by ship – and the majority of the vessels used are European owned.
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I cannot help it, I think this idea of sanctionising Russia to weasel around a direct confrontation simply - again - does not work as intended. And btw, the Russians have reopend the McDonald restaurants again.
The Europeans learn it the hard way these days. Weakness does not pay off, cannot get compensated by words and glorious ideas.
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Russian forces seem to have dirven out Ukranain milutary form tneh centre of Severodoenzk. With just one bridge still intact, the city now is at high risk to get fully isolated and unsuppliable. Its often said the Russaian advance has come to a standstill, but it does not seem so. They do advance - slowly, but notoriously, mercilessly. Step by step.
Bubble-Olaf finally seems to plan visiting Kyiv. Tiegther with, and herein lies the threat - Macronman and Draghi. What do these three have in common? They delay, brake, and try to not deliver much. All three want a negotiated peace treaty, and so by that imply the Ukraine should make Russia concessions. It worked great 2014, so why not doing it again? If I were Selensky, I would consider to not let them in...