It is senseless to shelter Putin from the sense that he is losing. He will figure that out for himself, and he will act to protect himself. Russians are not cornered. The Russian army is not cornered. It is an invading force. When defeated, units just retreat across the border to Russia. Putin rules in virtual reality, where there is always an escape route. He cannot be cornered in Ukraine, because Ukraine is a real place. It is hard for people in other societies to grasp that Putin is a dictator who controls his country's media. He rules by changing the subject. Putin changes the subject all the time. The last time Russia invaded Ukraine, its media changed the subject to Syria from one day to the next, and Russians went along.
When Russia invaded Ukraine this February, the media quickly adjusted from saying that invasion was impossible to saying it was inevitable. Russians went along. If defeated in reality, Putin will just declare victory on television, and Russians will believe him, or pretend to. He does not need our help for that. It is senseless to create an "off-ramp" in the real world, when all Putin needs is one in a virtual world he completely controls. Talking of "off-ramps" just gives Russian leaders something to laugh about in what are otherwise difficult times.
To be sure, Putin might error and wait too long to declare victory in the virtual world. In that case, he loses power. We cannot save him from such a misjudgment, and it is misguided to try. Putin's power over media will be complete until the moment when it ceases. There is no interval where our actions in the real world will make a difference. Either our off-ramps are unnecessary or they are irrelevant. It is grotesque to ask the Ukrainians to make decisions about the war for the comfort of Russian television producers, who don't take direction from the real world anyway. Misunderstanding Russia through clichés of "cornering" and "off-ramps" will make the war last longer, by distracting from the simple necessity of Russian defeat.
Ukraine is a very different story. Zelensky, unlike Putin, is democratically elected, feels responsible for his people, and governs in a world where others matter. Ukraine has a press that the government does not direct. Zelensky cannot simply change the subject. He has to bring his people along on any major decision. Unlike Putin, Zelensky has to make a case to his people to end this war. He therefore does need help, both to win the war and in telling Ukrainians what comes next. Unlike Russian soldiers, Ukrainians have nowhere else to go. They cannot just go home. The war is fought in their country. They will return to their homes and rebuild.
Ending the war means thinking more about the Ukrainian people and their future, and worrying less about problems that Putin does not in fact have.
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