The war in Ukraine entered its fourth month on Tuesday. The Ukrainian and Russian armies are fighting each other to the fullest, but neither seems able to decide the battle quickly. Three military scenarios outline how the war could end.
Translation from article in the volkskrant
https://www.volkskrant.nl/nieuws-ach...rijd~b73059e8/
Option 1: The Russians pull the longest straw after a tough fight
'Ukraine-light', after three months of heavy fighting, now seems to be the most viable option for Moscow: occupation of the Donbas and the strip of land to the east and south up to Crimea. With the capture of the Donbas, where fighting has been going on for six weeks, Russian President Vladimir Putin can still save face.
The Russian leader can then boast that the Russian-speaking populations of Luhansk and Donetsk have been "liberated," that the "Nazis" in Mariupol have been defeated, and that the Russian dream of a land link to Crimea has finally been fulfilled.
Finally, in this scenario, the Russian army settles the 'Battle of the Donbas' with supremacy and firepower. The 106 combat units Putin has sent to Ukraine, out of more than 140 at Russia's disposal, still prove too much for the estimated 40 thousand Ukrainian soldiers in the Donbas. The Russians manage to complete the encirclement of the Ukrainian army, which has been difficult for weeks.
With the drowsy pounding of the opponent by the Giatsint S howitzers, the Russians manage to break through the Ukrainian lines at weak spots along the 500-kilometer-long line of control in the Donbas. As the Ukrainian units can no longer be supplied by the Russian encirclement and cities like Severodonetsk are pulverized as much as Mariupol, the situation becomes untenable.
Ukrainian soldiers must watch as Western weapons, so crucial in the first months of the war, can no longer reach the Donbas. How soon the Russians can settle the battle depends on the military risks Moscow is willing to take in this final phase of the war.
In particular, Ukraine must fear a key asset that Russia has so far failed to deploy: the massive deployment of air power to support the offensive of mechanized units on the ground. What will be the reaction of Kyiv and the West if Putin declares the battle ended, proclaims that the mission has succeeded, and shows readiness to take a seat at the negotiating table? His commitment: to preserve all the conquered territory.
2. Ukraine does the unthinkable: it defeats the nuclear power army
How long does it take for an invasion force that has lost about fifteen thousand soldiers in just ninety days to fall through? That lost an entire fighting unit while crossing a river. Which had to leave the Kyiv region with its tail between its legs, was swept away at Kharkiv, and in the Donbas is unable to force a breakthrough.
U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin ran out of words Monday to praise the Ukrainian military. 'Ukraine has been fighting for three months with guts and tactical ingenuity,' Austin said. 'In this new phase, Ukraine is still fighting just as hard, and just as well.' Kyiv, emboldened by Western leaders who shout that Ukraine may well win the war, is holding its ground in the Donbas in this option.
Using the West's new heavy weapons, especially howitzers, the Russian army is dealt heavy blows. Bolstered by mounting Russian losses and the successful counteroffensive at Kharkiv, the Ukrainians even counterattack. They face a stagnant Russian army plagued by low morale, logistical problems, and poor leadership.
The army chief in Moscow, to Putin's horror, is no longer able to stem the tide and must watch as Russian units are pushed further and further back into the Donbas. The Kremlin, especially with the rising death toll, is coming under increasing pressure to negotiate. But Ukraine, buoyed by its gains in territory, is not hesitating.
Before the invasion, it was always thought that time was in the Russians' favor. It was only a matter of time before the Ukrainian army, because of Russian supremacy, would collapse. It is now reversed: the longer the war lasts, the more likely the invasion force will be eroded by unprecedented losses. 'Ukraine must win this war,' EU boss Ursula von der Leyen called out on Tuesday. 'Putin's aggression must be a strategic failure.'
Option 3: Stalemate
The war has now entered a phase reminiscent of a boxing match between two equal opponents: they beat each other to a pulp, but no one wins. What was feared for a long time is now coming true in the Donbas. The "P-word," of stalemate, is widely used by military experts these days. After all, the huge tank battle that was foreseen has failed to materialize. The Russian army has been trying for weeks to advance from three sides to encircle the Ukrainians, but they are encountering fierce resistance.
When the Russians gain some ground, they have to give it up again soon after. Here and there they achieve some success, but thanks to the weapons of the West, Ukraine cannot be overrun. Kyiv, for its part, does not have the manpower or enough heavy weapons, such as tanks and aircraft, to throw the Russians out of the Donbas and south.
British Deputy Defense Minister James Heappey recently warned that the war may well last at least a year. 'I don't see either side achieving anything very quickly,' Heappey said. The question is whether the international community will allow this bloodletting to continue. The pressure on Kyiv and Moscow to agree to a ceasefire and negotiations will only increase sharply.