[Skybird]

I have long time argued that when NATO gives Ukraine an explicit timetable for membership, that would be the time when Russia with 100% probability would attack - BEFORE membership and thus article 5 become an issue for Russia. I did not expect that Russia would attack without a imminent causal trigger.

Obviously that assumption was wrong. I now think Russia wants its sovjet empire back anyway - no matter what the US would do. So, the US in my view is relieved of the accusation that it pressed or provoked the Russian attack.



The US has made it its hobby to push its own system in other places, and got recently repeatedly some bloody nose. But regarding Russia this US missionising maybe plays less a role than previously thought. The Russian desire is what it is, it stands independent from American action. Preventing Russian aggression is thus only possible by the fielding of superior combat power. In other words: by military deterrance.