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https://www.focus.de/politik/russlan..._69516015.html



Political scientist and strategy expert Maximilian Terhalle does not expect a peace solution in Ukraine with compromises from both sides. In an interview with FOCUS Online, he declared, "Putin will not stop until he is stopped!" The means: massive arms deliveries from the West and an embargo on Russian gas. Otherwise, Putin might even attack NATO territory.


Professor Maximilian Terhalle is a visiting professor at the LSE IDEAS think tank at the London School of Economics and a lieutenant colonel in the reserves. His most recent publication is "The Responsibility to Defend: Re-thinking Germany's Strategic Culture" (IISS 2021, with B. Giegerich).
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The current negotiations between Moscow and Kiev on an early end to Russia's war of aggression against Ukraine will not lead to success. Political scientist and strategy expert Professor Maximilian Terhalle (47) is convinced of this. Instead, the West would have to tighten its grip on Kremlin leader Vladimir Putin and "bring him to his knees" through economic sanctions and massive arms deliveries to Ukraine. Otherwise, he said, there is a danger that Putin's troops will also attack NATO countries.

In an interview with FOCUS Online, Terhalle said, "There will be no peace solution - to be enforced by anyone - that is based on compromises in the sense of: You withdraw a bit there and we withdraw a bit there and in the middle we put the UN." He is also skeptical about Ukraine's neutrality, which is currently under discussion. "From Ukraine's point of view, I wouldn't trust Putin one millimeter over," Terhalle said. "I assume this is just a feint on his part to get a breather, realign his military and then strike again."

The professor went on to tell FOCUS Online that Putin is "highly frustrated and angry" over the slow progress of the war he instigated. At the same time, he said, an "irrepressible hatred of Ukraine and the West" was driving him to ever greater acts of violence. Russia's president, he said, sees that his army is not penetrating as planned and is instead suffering sensitive losses. "Yet he wants to force victory." The logical conclusion for Terhalle: "Putin will not stop until he is stopped!"

To bring "Putin's war machine" to a halt, Terhalle sees only two means that the West should use much more consistently than it has so far. "One is for NATO countries to supply massive amounts of weapons technology and military hardware to Ukraine." The Russians would not be able to stop that, he said. "They are currently unable to stop the flow of fighters and military equipment across the Polish-Ukrainian border," Terhalle said. "That is Putin's sore point."

Terhalle to FOCUS Online: "As long as the eastern border is open, the West should deliver all the weapons it can to Ukraine!" For one thing, this would prop up Ukraine. For another, Russia would be "dramatically weakened." Putin must "lose his way" in Ukraine, Terhalle said. "We have to take away his power."

For this goal to be achieved, economic sanctions against Moscow should be drastically tightened. For example, "all Russian banks would have to be taken out of the Swift payment system," the geostrategist told FOCUS Online. In addition, an embargo of Russian oil and gas would have to be "the clear and near ultimate goal" of the West. Terhalle: "This could finally stop the Russian military machine, which is fed by us every day with around 800 million euros for gas and oil imports."

So far, Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD) and Federal Economics Minister Robert Habeck (Greens) have strictly rejected a rapid import stop of Russian oil and gas because they see Germany's energy supply in danger. Political scientist Terhalle counters, "If not even a country as rich as Germany can afford a small cut in its own prosperity - who can?" In this context, he recalled that Putin responds "only to coercion."

If the West does not understand this principle and acts accordingly, he said, this could have devastating consequences - including for Germany. "I don't think it's impossible that Putin will expand his war and also attack NATO countries. The West should absolutely take that into account and be prepared for it," Maximilian Terhalle said. It is true that the Kremlin ruler would first have to bring his troops to the eastern border of Poland or the southern border of the Baltic states. But that is only a question of time and the power reserves of Putin's army.

In an emergency, Putin would then encounter a "militarily extremely hardened eastern flank of NATO, which is conventionally highly armed," Terhalle said. "And then it's war!" The expert, who himself is a reserve lieutenant colonel, says, "Then Bundeswehr soldiers will be in the front line, opposing the Russians - and doing so by fighting." Already, he said, NATO has the "best combat troops the alliance can muster" stationed in Poland and the Baltics. "They have to repel a Russian attack when in doubt," he said.

Terhalle believes Putin has "vastly overestimated the fighting morale, the will to fight, and the actual fighting strength" of his army. "Putin is not getting through despite the brute force in many places in Ukraine, and the casualties and attrition are high."

Still, the expert strongly warns against underestimating Putin and his military. "We've been thinking for three weeks now: He's making so many mistakes, it's not going to work. But Putin will learn, he will adapt his strategy, he will use other weapons systems. His will is unbroken. He wants to achieve his goal and emerge from the war as a winner." In the process, he said, it is conceivable that Putin will also use chemical and biological weapons in Ukrainian cities.
Volodymyr Selenskyj, president of Ukraine, during a video conference with the U.S. Congress.
Ukrinform/dpa Volodymyr Selenskyj, president of Ukraine, during a video conference with the U.S. Congress.

The political scientist also does not believe that the recent losses among Russian combat units must automatically lead to a weakening. "Putin still has the Russian conventional army up his sleeve that he could send into combat." However, it is also clear that the course of the war, which is unsatisfactory from Russia's point of view, "falls back on Putin personally." Terhalle to FOCUS Online: "Putin is the war president. And if the war president doesn't live up to his own claim, it's very questionable in my view whether he'll still be Russia's head of state in six or twelve months."

No matter how the war develops, Putin will no longer play a leading role on the world political stage, Terhalle believes. "Putin, in my view, can no longer sit at a negotiating table in talks about the future of European security." The powerful Kremlin leader has proven he is unwilling to resolve certain issues peacefully, he said. "Instead, he has chosen the means of brute, brutal force to impose his will on another sovereign state. In doing so, he has permanently isolated himself in the world community."

Russia, on the other hand, will continue to be an international negotiating partner - but only "if it completely withdraws its war aims and completely revises its attitude toward Ukraine," Terhalle said.

The war is a frightening reminder of how dramatically the world situation has changed, he said. "We no longer live in a world where international treaties, international principles, institutions and cooperation can be considered the gold standard of world politics," Professor Terhalle said. "Putin's war shows that there are powers that want to and can destroy exactly this beautiful world. We have to prepare for that. The sooner we do that, the better."

Terhalle doubts whether the necessary rethinking has already begun in Germany. For example, he said, the German government has acted very hesitantly since the start of the war and has watched as other countries have jumped to Ukraine's side with military aid, first and foremost the United States and Great Britain. "Whether the sole delivery of Stinger and Strela defensive weapons is sufficient for the mentality required at the turn of the times is something everyone must decide for themselves," Terhalle said. "What is clear, however, is that Berlin was neither requested as a guarantor power of possible Ukrainian neutrality in the first place, nor did it willingly bring itself into play as one of the guarantors."


Translated with www.DeepL.com/Translator (free version)