Quote:
Originally Posted by clayton
Russia’s economy is the size of Argentina. They are nothing more than a gas station. This will be the beginning of the end for Putin, and more than likely, it will come from his people.
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I have heard this argument many times and once upon time I believed into it myself. Unfortunately, realities of Russian economy do not align with those of Western countries. Nose dive of rouble does not matter as long as trading happens within Russia and is done in roubles. While economic sanctions will cause troubles to regular Russian people, it will not hamper upkeep of Russian armed forces and internal security forces as daily expenses are in robules and there is no need to acquire foreign equipment which would be paid in euros or dollars. This is primary reason why Russia is able to maintain large and heavily armed military which Western country with similar GDP would not be able to afford.
Also, Russia is self-sufficient in energy, critical food supplies and many daily necessities, which means that prices of locally produced stuff will likely remain stable. Situation is roughly opposite in Europe, which receives large portion of it's imported energy (both petrochemical raw materials and electricity) from Russia. It is also important to remember, that Russia is major producer of raw materials required by European industrial sector, and Russia and Ukraine combined provide about 30% of world wheat exports.
In short, while Russia is on paper weaker than it's Western counterparts, it has better ability to sustain extended conflict. While some Western products will no longer be available, there is no reason to believe that this would lead into shortages of daily supplies or major increases in prices on internal markets which would cause protest against Russian regime. When combined with almost complete control on news media and powerful internal security forces, I don't believe that Vladimir Putin has any sleping troubles.