[Skybird]

Die Welt writes:

No one in the West knows what Russian President Vladimir Putin plans to do with the soldiers and weapons he is moving toward the West. Moscow denies that it is planning an invasion of Ukraine.

Thanks to spy satellites and other reconnaissance methods, however, the intelligence services have a very good overview of the current situation. And this looks grim - especially when combined with the analyses that have been produced on Putin himself. An overview:


The deployment

Intelligence agencies from the U.S. and other NATO countries estimate that between 112,000 to 120,000 Russian troops are now stationed in areas not far from Ukraine. The troops have been joined by heavy weapons, tanks and, most recently, landing ships and medical service units with blood reserves, according to conversations with Western intelligence officials.

More Russian soldiers are expected to join a military maneuver starting soon in Belarus, north of Ukraine. They will be accompanied by a transfer of S-400 air defense systems and Sukhoi Su-35 fighter aircraft.

There are no indications of an end to the deployment, a senior Western intelligence official said. Specifically, he said, it is considered likely that the number of tactical battalion groups (BTGs), currently estimated at about 60, could be increased to more than 100 by mid-February. BTGs are fast and highly flexible combat units with 600 to 1000 soldiers.

The BTGs could be supported in the event of a Russian attack by the estimated 35,000 or so armed forces of pro-Kremlin separatists in the Donbass. They are not included in the more than 100,000 Russian troops.

The military options

If the buildup continues as feared, military experts believe Russia could be in a position to launch a full-scale invasion followed by occupation in as little as two weeks. However, it is also considered possible that only half of the country will be taken, or that only a corridor will be created from the already annexed Ukrainian peninsula of Crimea toward Moldova and Romania.

Other options include an official move into the Donbass, already controlled by the separatists, where Russian soldiers would then see themselves as a kind of peacekeeping force - possibly even after an expansion of the separatist areas. A possible attack on Ukraine's capital, Kiev, could be carried out via Belarus, but also via northeastern Ukraine, according to analysts.

Whether Putin chooses one of these options - and if so, which one - is likely to depend on the willingness to take risks, on the one hand, and on the actual goal he wants to achieve, on the other, according to the analysts. Any attack is likely to be accompanied by extensive cyberattacks on the energy supply system, state command and control offices, and the telecommunications system, TV and radio stations. "The goal would be to quickly isolate the country and cause a lot of chaos and anxiety among as many people as possible," explains an intelligence official.

The possible motivations

Why might Putin risk attacking Ukraine? From the perspective of Western services, it's quite clear. "He wants Ukraine back," is the analysis. From Putin's point of view, Russians and Ukrainians are one people, Ukraine does not exist at all, and neither does an independent Ukrainian people. For this reason, Putin advocates the return of Ukraine to Russia or at least to its sphere of influence.

The glimmer of hope is that, precisely because of this way of thinking, Putin is probably not interested in destroying the country too much in the event of an attack. One likely option is therefore for Russia to launch an offensive lasting only a few days or weeks and then come to the negotiating table. There it could present the other negotiators with a choice: Either there is a surrender, or the offensive continues. It is possible that Putin's main goal is to remove pro-Western Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. The Kremlin leader seems to be personally quite fixated on Selenskyj, it is said.

The pretext for a limited military operation in eastern Ukraine, according to the services, could be Putin's claim that he needs to protect the Russian minority from an impending "genocide" by "insane Ukrainian fascists." Putin's narrative would then be: he had no other choice.

Russia's regular protestations that it has no plans to attack are not taken seriously by the intelligence services - especially since Putin himself threatened shortly before Christmas: "In case of continuation of the rather aggressive line of our Western colleagues, we will respond with adequate military-technical measures."

The weather and the Olympics

Some experts recently expressed their conviction that the suitable window of opportunity for a large-scale Russian attack is likely to close for the time being at the end of February. After that, as the snow melts, the ground softens and tanks and other heavy vehicles would have a very difficult time making headway. Other experts, however, warn against thinking that way. They point out that Russian forces have large quantities of modern guided missiles and could parachute large numbers of troops to their destination. "They would find a way to deal with the melting snow," they say.

On the other hand, it is considered possible that the Beijing Winter Olympics, which begin next Friday, could play a role in upcoming decisions. The reasoning: An attack during that time is likely to damage Putin's image even more, turning Chinese President Xi Jinping against him in addition to the entire West.

Russia has backed a U.N. resolution that an Olympic truce would be in place during the Beijing Olympics (Feb. 4-20) and Paralympics (March 4-13). "Under the Olympic truce, all sides are called upon to cease hostilities throughout the duration of the Games," UN Secretary-General António Guterres said recently.

Translated with www.DeepL.com/Translator (free version)