[Skybird]

Maybe they want not to conquer all Ukraine, but instead blitz Kiev, install a puppet regime, and/or declare the Donbass an "independent" (Russian-friendly) brother state.

The announced manouvers in Belarus saw them accumulating severe troop strength in Belarus. Now, looking at the map, if that force blitzes directly south, it bypasses Kiewv in its West and lands in the Western Ukraine, able to block any possible push of NAOT ground forces that for whatever an insane reason would rush in from the West. It also blocks logistical supplies coming in from that direction. Both ground and air transports.

At their border with Belarus, they seem to have two big formations. If these move directly south as well, they land right in Kiev. By car: 3 hours. In war: longer, but it would be a Blitz nevertheless.

They have another couple of formations that embrace the Donbass like a rescent. There they could pince-attack the region and embrace it to death, so to speak.

Their small force in Moldavia completes the sealing against the West.

S-400s are operating in the area.

The Russian widespread deployment along these three likely axis of attack also force the Ukraine to thin out its troop lines because it must cover a longer frontline. The Russian on the other hand have the freeedom to amass and focus wherever they want.

All the time Mariupol in the south near the Crimean is at risk, too.

The Russians have almost perfect attack positions now, and have maximised their options, their degrees of decision freedom. Whatever they want to do and which road they prefer to chose from here on: they are in the idealt starting block. If those maps in Western media get it right, they have set up exactly like I would have done it. The Ukrainians however must be everywhere, and thus their lines are thin everywhere: at least as long as they do not will to give up ground, according to the old wisdom of that he who wants to defend everything, will loose evertyhing. They still talk as if they think they could get back the Crimean, so I am not optimstic about their sense of realism. But maybe thats just acting of theirs.