Quote:
Originally Posted by nikimcbee
Do you think the end game is full restoration of the Soviet Union?
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I dont know if that, but certainly Putin wants to establish a Russian hegemony in Europe, and would not mind to get as much of the former Sovjet vasall republics back as possible. He does so at the same time when China starts to rattle sabres over Hongkong and Taiwan. What a "coincidence"!
Also, the Russians have invested too much now as if they could just quit this round without having gained anything. They would loose their face, the world would laugh about them for years
and not take them serious anymore - which probably is Putin's biggest concern.
Strategically they can keep the Ukraine in constant state of destabilization, this way preventing it from becoming stronger, and they could do the same with Europe.
German foreign ministress Baerbock has just seen Lawrow in Moscow, their first meeting. Our media say the atmosphere was formally polite but not more, and turned much more frosty with time passing by. Baerbock left the press conference without the normally obligatory shake-hands. Its like I and many others predicted: Baerbock's claim that she wants to establish a "moral and feminist foreign policy" crashes on the Russian cliffs of ice-coldly calculated power policies.
Putin is not known to be follower of both morals, or feminism - has nobody told her...?
During the late 50s and early 60s, the German defence budget was 4%. It currently is 1.3x %, I red today. Russia is the biggest and strongest army in Europe. Baerbock wants to dictate conditions. She will dictate nothing, her threats are empty, the Germans will suffer dearly from all out economic sanctions, and have strong business interests to protect Russia (including but not limited to gas), the government is in parts deeply associated with Russia (especially the SPD which has practially no real expert for American- European ties, but many who think they are Russia-whisperers), and it is isolated in the EU over the question how to deal with Russia; the EU's Borell short time ago has bluntly dressed down the German positions, rightly and undiplomatically labelling them as self-contradictory. He did so not behind loocked door - but during a public press conference.
Unfortunately the Russian know all thsio, and see all this. They have no reason to take pressure out of the kettle. Their interst is best served by
increasing it further.
Hush-hush, somebody must tell angry Anna-Lena and her master, bubble-Olaf!
P.S. Putin also must have taken note that Europe wants to become carbon-emission neutral much - and unrealistically - earlier than expected, and that could spell the beginning of the end of Russian energy sales to Europe, meaning a huge financial loss in the Russian budget. China will buy some of those positions, but probably not all. That would also mean that Russia would depend on China buying their gas, which cannot be in Russian interest, they want to
spread their risks. By raising turmoil in Europe and distracting the energy policy revolution as well as trying to blackmail the EU for signing long-lasting replacment treaties that last long beyond the European timetables for gettign rid of gas and carbon, he tries to win time and makes it very costly for the EU so that it cannot stick to its timetable - hopefully. An arms race might play into Russian hands if it means Europe must redirect funds from the energy revolution to boosting military budgets. Russia is no industrial giant, only a giant in selling energy ressources. And that puts them on the spot.