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Skybird · 12-16-21, 03:31 PM

The Neue Zürcher Zeitung writes:

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Researchers from London show what a rapidly spreading virus that can escape immune protection and is more infectious than previous variants could do.

"Omikron overshadows everything that we have seen so far in terms of growth rates in Sars-CoV-2 variants," says Dirk Brockmann, physicist and specialist in mathematical models at the Humboldt University in Berlin, at an expert briefing by Science Media Center Germany on Wednesday. The doubling of the number of cases is four times faster than with all previously circulating coronaviruses.

The situation is actually very similar to that before the very first corona wave in March 2020. Because Omikron can largely escape the immune protection of people who have been vaccinated twice and those who have recovered, the virus hits a population that is largely unprotected, emphasizes the Berliner Scientist.

"We currently have to assume that only people in the first months after the third vaccination are largely, but not completely, protected from infection by Omikron," adds virologist Sandra Ciesek from the University of Frankfurt. The situation is made even more difficult by the fact that Omikron can not only escape the immune system, but is also more infectious per se than previous variants.
Four scenarios for the further course

Accordingly, it is to be expected that a large number of people will be infected in a pandemic dominated by Omikron. This situation will appear to occur in Europe by January at the latest. For Great Britain, a research group from the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine has now calculated what this could mean for the coming months in the UK.

Since some key figures such as the extent of the immune flight or the effectiveness of three vaccine doses cannot yet be precisely stated, the researchers have designed four scenarios: a very optimistic one in which the virus only slightly escapes immune protection and the boosters are very effective. In a very pessimistic way, the new variant can infect many vaccinated and convalescent people, and even three vaccination doses only offer moderate protection.

Even in the optimistic scenario, 20.9 million people in Great Britain (a good 67 million inhabitants) would be infected with Omikron between now and the end of April next year, 175,000 would have to go to hospital and 24,700 would die. In the worst scenario, there would even be more than 34 million infected people, 492,000 hospitalized and 74,800 deaths. In other words, a third to half of the UK population could become infected with Omikron by spring. The data available to date on immune escape and booster efficiency suggest that at least the optimistic scenario corresponds to a somewhat overly positive assessment.

So far there is no similar model for Switzerland or Germany, apparently due to a weak database. So you don't yet know how high the proportion of Omicron cases in all new infections really is. However, there is no reason to assume that the Omicron pandemic will turn out significantly different in Switzerland or Germany.
What will happen depends on the measures that are now taken

But it is by no means said that any of the London researchers' scenarios will become reality at all. Because all these numbers are modeling in the event that no further measures than the currently valid measures are taken against the spread, write the London specialists for mathematical models.

"It is a warning of what could happen," says Brockmann. Therefore, such numbers should be a loud wake-up call for politicians to draw up emergency plans now and take preventive measures. And the population must understand that the pandemic is anything but over with the vaccinations and limit contacts, adds Ciesek.

Mind you, the measures will be necessary to prevent overloading the hospitals and the health system. Despite all the terrible news, Omikron is not a killer for anyone infected.

Because two vaccinations hardly provide any protection against infection. But they can protect against serious illness. The vaccine effectiveness in terms of severe Covid 19 disease is still 60 to 70 percent compared to Omikron (compared to Delta, however, it was over 90 percent). And young, healthy people do not have a higher risk of disease in an omicron wave than in a delta wave.

It is unclear whether Omikron is more harmless, at least with regard to the course of the disease, as is sometimes claimed. Ciesek is not convinced that Omikron always causes milder gradients. According to initial data from Denmark, the hospitalization rate for Omikron infected people is similar to that for Delta patients. The fact that fewer people are currently dying from an omicron infection in South Africa than at the beginning of the delta wave could also be due to the protective effect of the vaccinations.

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Or more sunlight, Vitamine D.

Ah it sucks that pharmaceutical companies cannot make a fortune with selling simple vitamines anymore.

12-16-21, 03:31 PM	#9584
Skybird Soaring Join Date: Sep 2001 Location: the mental asylum named Germany Posts: 42,788 Downloads: 10 Uploads: 0	The Neue Zürcher Zeitung writes: ------------------- Researchers from London show what a rapidly spreading virus that can escape immune protection and is more infectious than previous variants could do. "Omikron overshadows everything that we have seen so far in terms of growth rates in Sars-CoV-2 variants," says Dirk Brockmann, physicist and specialist in mathematical models at the Humboldt University in Berlin, at an expert briefing by Science Media Center Germany on Wednesday. The doubling of the number of cases is four times faster than with all previously circulating coronaviruses. The situation is actually very similar to that before the very first corona wave in March 2020. Because Omikron can largely escape the immune protection of people who have been vaccinated twice and those who have recovered, the virus hits a population that is largely unprotected, emphasizes the Berliner Scientist. "We currently have to assume that only people in the first months after the third vaccination are largely, but not completely, protected from infection by Omikron," adds virologist Sandra Ciesek from the University of Frankfurt. The situation is made even more difficult by the fact that Omikron can not only escape the immune system, but is also more infectious per se than previous variants. Four scenarios for the further course Accordingly, it is to be expected that a large number of people will be infected in a pandemic dominated by Omikron. This situation will appear to occur in Europe by January at the latest. For Great Britain, a research group from the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine has now calculated what this could mean for the coming months in the UK. Since some key figures such as the extent of the immune flight or the effectiveness of three vaccine doses cannot yet be precisely stated, the researchers have designed four scenarios: a very optimistic one in which the virus only slightly escapes immune protection and the boosters are very effective. In a very pessimistic way, the new variant can infect many vaccinated and convalescent people, and even three vaccination doses only offer moderate protection. Even in the optimistic scenario, 20.9 million people in Great Britain (a good 67 million inhabitants) would be infected with Omikron between now and the end of April next year, 175,000 would have to go to hospital and 24,700 would die. In the worst scenario, there would even be more than 34 million infected people, 492,000 hospitalized and 74,800 deaths. In other words, a third to half of the UK population could become infected with Omikron by spring. The data available to date on immune escape and booster efficiency suggest that at least the optimistic scenario corresponds to a somewhat overly positive assessment. So far there is no similar model for Switzerland or Germany, apparently due to a weak database. So you don't yet know how high the proportion of Omicron cases in all new infections really is. However, there is no reason to assume that the Omicron pandemic will turn out significantly different in Switzerland or Germany. What will happen depends on the measures that are now taken But it is by no means said that any of the London researchers' scenarios will become reality at all. Because all these numbers are modeling in the event that no further measures than the currently valid measures are taken against the spread, write the London specialists for mathematical models. "It is a warning of what could happen," says Brockmann. Therefore, such numbers should be a loud wake-up call for politicians to draw up emergency plans now and take preventive measures. And the population must understand that the pandemic is anything but over with the vaccinations and limit contacts, adds Ciesek. Mind you, the measures will be necessary to prevent overloading the hospitals and the health system. Despite all the terrible news, Omikron is not a killer for anyone infected. Because two vaccinations hardly provide any protection against infection. But they can protect against serious illness. The vaccine effectiveness in terms of severe Covid 19 disease is still 60 to 70 percent compared to Omikron (compared to Delta, however, it was over 90 percent). And young, healthy people do not have a higher risk of disease in an omicron wave than in a delta wave. It is unclear whether Omikron is more harmless, at least with regard to the course of the disease, as is sometimes claimed. Ciesek is not convinced that Omikron always causes milder gradients. According to initial data from Denmark, the hospitalization rate for Omikron infected people is similar to that for Delta patients. The fact that fewer people are currently dying from an omicron infection in South Africa than at the beginning of the delta wave could also be due to the protective effect of the vaccinations. --------------------- Or more sunlight, Vitamine D. Ah it sucks that pharmaceutical companies cannot make a fortune with selling simple vitamines anymore. __________________ If you feel nuts, consult an expert.