It has been drone strikes blowing up parties and weddings that have risen civilian casualty rates inflationary and made many Afghans so bitter about the Westerners.
America is overly optimistic on the reach of ELINT and high technology.
You need eyes and boots on the ground. You cannot do without HUMINT and infiltration of organisations. You just cannot. Especially in a technologically low profile place like Afghanistan.
Have the past 20 years really taught nothing?
Plus there is demography. In the eighties, during the Sovjet era, losses of Afghan fighters were compensated by a birth rate that made sure that at least three times as many young fighters were born than the Sovjets managed to get killed. When America invaded, it already stood against one million more young men than the Sovjets during their invasion stage.
The war index of Afghanistan (Gunnar Heinsohn) had climbed, the Sowjet war had not brought it down, quite the opposite. For the remaining years of this decade, this index will continue to fluctuate almost not at all and mark above 5.5, which makes Afghanistan one of the most war-ready places on this planet. Around 6 million young Afghan men in best soldier age are under weapons currently, more than ever during the Sovjet and American occupation, and until 2030, so says Heinsohn, another 1.4 million will add to that.
Party time.
Its not difficult to predict that the place will blow up in a huge flare of civil war between rivalling factions. Its for me the by far most likely scenario. War demographics, gentlemen. Nothing can keep up with the dynamics of war demographics. Its by far not only the geography and the rugged terrain, technology or scientific invention!
Compared to the afghan war index, all western nations, China and Russia have war indices around and below 1.0
If you still do not know what the war index by Heinsohn is (I mentioned it many times over the years): its the ratio between old men dying and younger men growing into their places to replace them. A war index of 0.7 (Germany currently) means that for 1000 old combat-capable men leaving, 700 young men grow into that age where they could replace them in combat. The US is around 0.97.
Afghanistan has roughly 5500 young men growing into that age when 1000 older men leave the combat-ready age-range. That means you can massacre them at piecework speed, and they still would grow stronger. It was like this during the Sowjet invasion, and the Sowjets looked in disbelief, it was like this during the American occupation, and the Ameicans did not understand it either, and it is like this from now on. Its like in a scifi movie where they fire their lasers into a space monster, and by that feed it with energy and the monster grows and grows.
Heinsohn taught this, war demographics, at NATO command college in Rome.
You can defeat suc enemies only by a.) going after their high fertility, and b.) havignb a very long breath. Count such a war duration in generations, not years.
BTW, Islam since centuries counts cultural clashes and wars in generations, practically.