Quote:
Originally Posted by Skybird
German death declarations discriminate precisely between a death from Corona (=caused by Corona), and a death with Corona (Corona being present but not the main cause of dying).
Case numbers are going up in France, Germany, Czech Republic while I type this, these are ust the countries were I am sure it is so, there may be others in Europe, too: SAwedne on my mind, Switzerland, Ireland). The Czech are absolutely desperate, their hospitals are overwhelmed. Triage is reality. They desperately scream for help and foreign nurses.
I have a basic understanding of science and stastics. I did statistics for 5 years, and after getting my diploma, for 2 years in part time employment in psychological sleep research data analysis. - Its long time ago, though, dont expect me to shake a cluster analysis or a factor rotation out of the sleeve without doing a refresher first. I studied at a time when SSPS for Windows was, unreliable and bug-ridden. Thats why we calculated it all not just on PC, but also manully, by hand/head. Doing so is no fun.
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In the US, they definitely have *not* segregated with vs. from in any uniform manner.
Dependent upon which hospital, which state, and which health department, deaths can and have been reported differently. The federal government created a perverse financial incentive to report all deaths with covid as if they were from covid. The CDC also issues guidelines that, for a while, resulted in the reporting of anyone in close proximity to someone who tested positive as if they were also positive, without requiring a positive test result.
I don't trust *any* of the statistics in the US for that reason, as well as that the *recording* of test results is also not uniform. Dependent upon the lab, PCR Ct will and have varied, resulting in reporting of false positives and face negatives. Multiple tests of the same person have in some cases been recorded as separate cases.
We also have issues with *how* cases are reported in the US. Dependent upon the reporting agency, you'll still see dumps of data that would imply a huge spike in cases until you drill down and discover that many of those cases are from a week, a month, 6 months ago. You'll get a huge spike in Mondays or Tuesdays because of tests collected Friday- Sunday. Likewise the first business day after a holiday.
This would be fine ***if the media reported these facts***. The problem is, the media report, for example, "...500 new cases reported today..." without that context, which, cooked with the fact that most people are actually really dumb (even the highly-educated), and it results in the current panic with the associated power grabs by governments.
Facts about lockdowns and masks actually not working are surpressed. Lockdowns (part of NPIs) don't work once you get >1% of the population exposed. Masks are more unsafe outside of a clinical setting when used by the untrained.
Vaccines? If vaccines are working like they should, then you need to inform recipients of how long it takes to achieve the desired immunity rather than a nebulous "continue masks and social distancing for the foreseeable future.". Either they work or they don't. If they don't, then just unlock everything and be prepared to deal with whatever hospitalizations and deaths occur until herd immunity - people at higher risk can decide for themselves whether to hide forever or not.