[Kapitan]

In terms of capability your missing quite a bit of info here, when we talk about blue water capability there is a wide ranging set of factors that need to be taken into account its not just about warship numbers.
If you look at the Todd and Linburg classification you will find a four tier blue water section, in tier 1 is the USA tier 2 France and UK tier 3 has China and Russia and there is reasons for this.

You correct in stating its not all about bean counting that’s true it is not, there are many factors which go into making a blue water navy truly global capable.

If you look at the UK and France the reason they are where they are in ranking is because of logistical capability, what this actually means is besides being able to project power beyond its shore for a extended period of time they also have the capability to supply those positions almost indefinitely.
The UK and France because of their colonial past have huge networks on every continent, they also have basing rights and port rights and air bridges this network is so vast it takes nearly 8,000 of us to manage these networks (and yes I’m one of them).

If you break it down the UK for example it has the ability to use ports and airports on every continent, the UK has over seas capabilities in all areas something China and Russia does not have.

To give you an idea what I work with this is a list of areas open to us by treaty, these countries allow us port and air bridge rights for logistics and you will note by plotting this out on the map it encompasses the globe:

All 27 EU countries, Norway, Sweden, Israel, Turkey, Egypt, Algeria , Morocco, Sierra Leone, Nigeria, Ghana, Namibia, South Africa, Kenya, BIOT Islands, India, Qatar, Bahrain, UAE, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Bangladesh, Thailand, Malaysia, Singapore, Philippines, South Korea, Japan, U.S pacific territories, Australia, New Zealand, Chile, Falklands Islands and territories, including accension island, Ecuador, Panama, Costa Rica, Belize, Mexico, Guatemala, United States, Canada, Multiple Caribbean nations, Brazil, French Guyana

This is what Russia does not have and it is what China is seeking to replicate in the new silk road program, however they are very much behind the UK and France.
Every country I listed above has given the UK the right to make port or land and over fly thus giving the UK a global supply chain network and yes we do utilise all of them countries!

Europe as a combined whole has the largest sea lift capability on the globe, yes you may laugh but its true there’s a big difference to how the Europeans do it as to how the Russians, Chinese and Americans do it.
Europe has the largest roll on roll off fleet in the world, and some of the largest ConRo and RoRo vessels, in terms of lane meters they are second to none and all these ships are in traffic, the reality is we utilize these vessels for civilian service but if they are needed (and they have been) they are called up (I was on one such ship called up).

Being part of NATO also helps this opens up a lot of doors, it also means that auxiliary fleets open up too, what the auxiliaries are which not a lot of people are aware is, they are not part of a navy they are a civilian merchant service, manned by Civilians the Royal fleet auxiliary is just the example.

The UK also has the 9th largest merchant marine at 39.8 million DWT, China is only slightly behind here in 10th with 37.2 million DWT.

Now in terms of ship numbers in the combat fleet yes France and UK have a lot less hulls than China and indeed Russia that is true, but unlike Russian and China both France and UK can keep a strike group in action in deep ocean indefinitely due to the logistics capability, this is something we know neither Russia nor China can do.

Both Russia and China would not be able to keep up with the level of operations logistically in order to keep a strike group at sea indefinitely.
Russia does not have the forward logistics units to relay for a start, and China’s auxiliaries are too few in number just now.

Do I think both Russia and China will hit tier 2 in the next decade? Yes I absolutely think they will.