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Originally Posted by skidman
Yeah, whatever. Still this does not explain, what El Whacko referred to: Comparing the incidence for Italy and the US it is obvious that a country hit very hard in the beginning is doing much better now than the US.
Is this a "Trump effect"? Don't know, maybe it's a "people like 3catcircus effect"? |
Countries like Italy are doing much better because the first wave killed all the susceptible elderly and the next wave affects younger, healthier people. The first wave wouldn't have been as bad for Italy if they didn't have multiple generations in the same house - healthier people bring it home with them and then infect their parents or grandparents or great-grandparents.
Italy has a population of roughly 60 million. The US has a population of roughly 330 million. That's a five-fold difference in population. Your graph shows roughly 40,000/million in Italy and 80,000/million in the US. When you consider the difference in population, roughly 2x as many cases for 5x the population isn't a bad ratio. Especially since we don't *really* know how many actual cases because, at least in the US, for a while, multiple positives of the same individual were reported as separate cases and those in close proximity to positives were also counted as cases - and no one has gone back and normalized the data.
https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/...-cold-weather/
https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/2021...to-be-seasonal
https://bioengineer.org/global-analy...9-is-seasonal/
https://ccdd.hsph.harvard.edu/will-c...armer-weather/
I'd say a host of different entities all reporting similar information that this will probably be seasonal - and many of them recent articles trumps an article from this past summer.
Who said anything about overassessment? Of *course* the number of infected is higher than those to be lab-confirmed as infected. Which bolsters the argument that CFR and IFR are an order magnitude lower than the authorities report - that is - more people actually infected = a smaller percentage of those infected need hospitalization or end up dying.
Really? The good Dr. Birx disagrees with you:
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/vi...19_death.html#!
When you get extra money for covid, every death with covid can be counted as from covid.
https://www.cdc.gov/cpr/readiness/funding-covid.htm
https://www.hopkinsmedicine.org/heal...ou-should-know
https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/med...im/ar-BB19O5Ca
https://www.newscientist.com/article...dont-know-why/
This is common-sense Biology 101: it is desirable, if you are a virus, to be able to spread amongst more people without killing them or making them so sick that they are isolated because that means you get replicated to a greater extent.
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Let's take a look at the deaths then: We see the influence of the so called British mutant and we see the second/third wave has produced more deaths in almost all countries. More infections = more deaths. What was your point again?
You think this is a political subject, but it isn't. Biochemistry is truth. The mathematics behind epidemiological statistics and modeling is factual. You might not like the outcome, but fantasizing about a conspiracy that uses the pandemic for a political agenda is ridiculous.
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You are showing a *cumulative* chart - the numbers can *only* go up. No one is denying that people get sick and die. What no one wants to talk about or think about is what was going on before covid when no one was actually paying attention to the details. For decades, health organizations have never actually performed laboratory tests for everyone who dies from a respiratory illness. They've all pretty much been suspected cases diagnosed based upon symptoms. Below is from the 2017-2018 flu season, but it still holds regardless of season.
"While flu deaths in children are reported to CDC, flu deaths in adults are not nationally notifiable. In order to monitor influenza related deaths in all age groups, CDC tracks pneumonia and influenza (P&I)-attributed deaths through the National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) Mortality Reporting System. This system tracks the proportion of death certificates processed that list pneumonia or influenza as the underlying or contributing cause of death. This system provides an overall indication of whether flu-associated deaths are elevated, but does not provide an exact number of how many people died from flu. During the 2017-2018 season, the percentage of deaths attributed to pneumonia and influenza (P&I) was at or above the epidemic threshold for 16 consecutive weeks. During the past five seasons, the average number of weeks this indicator was above threshold was 11 (range of 7 to 15 weeks). Nationally, mortality attributed to P&I exceeded 10.0% for four consecutive weeks, peaking at 10.8% during the week ending January 20, 2018.
As it does for the numbers of flu cases, doctor’s visits and hospitalizations, CDC also estimates deaths in the United States using mathematical modeling. CDC estimates that from 2010-2011 to 2013-2014, influenza-associated deaths in the United States ranged from a low of 12,000 (during 2011-2012) to a high of 56,000 (during 2012-2013). Death certificate data and weekly influenza virus surveillance information was used to estimate how many flu-related deaths occurred among people whose underlying cause of death on their death certificate included respiratory or circulatory causes. For more information, see
Estimating Seasonal Influenza-Associated Deaths in the United States and CDC’s
Disease Burden of Influenza page."
No one knows how many died from a specific respiratory disease because they're all lumped in. For all we know, the 2018-2019 flu season could have been the first instance of covid-19 occurring. We have evidence that it was in the wild in the fall of 2019, which means it was likely circulating the year prior as well.
Why did the CDC report minimal flu cases in 2020 but tons of covid deaths? Explain to me how social distancing and masks are effective against flu but not covid when they are transmitted exactly the same way.
No one is saying this is just politics - what I'm saying is that science has been politicized, compounded by "experts" who've forgotten the basics of science (or never understood them to begin with).
1. What CT would you use for PCR tests? How do you know if it is live virus or viral debris when PCR does nothing bu replicate genetic material irrespective.
2. Explain how masks will stop someone from being infected when viral particles are smaller than mask weaves (even N95s)? You may get a smaller viral load from the portion that is contained in exhalate that is partially blocked, but it won't 100% stop you from being infected.
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/23505369/
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019...ars-cov-2.html
3. Explain why lockdowns preventing people from being outdoors in sunlight is a good thing when studies have shown that inadequate levels of vitamin D can contribute to severity of symptoms from covid infection. It only takes 10-15 minutes without sunscreen for the body to turn cholesterol into vitamin D.