[Skybird]

The formal claims about Nawalny and the reason for his re-arrest, are just this: formal. If it wpould not be these reaosns, than some othe rreaosns woukd have been found. Of course he is the arch enemy of Putin and Putin tries to get rid of the problem in any way necessary. Thats why the police is so ultra-brutal against the demonstrators: fix the danger while it still is small.

The US is not in a moral position to morally lecture Russia for that. And the EU is in an indifferent position anyway, being ridiculous in any attempt to moralise. Both he American and European moral credibility are corrupted, for different reasons. The US acted in similiar ways regarding Assange: giving formal foul excuses for persecuting him, constructing a sexual offence case where there most likely is none, and never has been, the whole story has always stunko rotten form beginning on, th Swedish women starting it beign dubious at best. Formalities gave the operation to lock down and get hand on Assange an apparent legal, justified claim. But it never was that, it was about getting him into American arrest, and about revenge, and turning him into an intimidating example to scare others following him.

Putin is not Mr Kind Guy, nor will he ever win a price for fairness and sportsmanship, he does what he sees necessary to secure his power. His recent calculations however maybe are not as sdharpo and precise anymore as they once have been. He overstepped the limit with his hjabit to notoriously poison critics and unwanted people. He overestuimated his cards, maybe.

Maybe he becomes another old man who misses the right point in his life to leave it all behind, and live unknown, but safe until a natural death. Or he does what he does becasue that is the only way to become old and one day die a natural death, I dont know. But he is turning old.

And I think that mid and late Putin is a result of Western politics on Russia 20, 25 years ago, yes. Putin was always KGB, but once held a more Europe-oriented, positive, constructive attitude towards the West. I recall the times when even in Washington some saw in him someone like a new Peter the Great, and her ein Germany anyway. That time did not last for long, however. Its just that he saw the West, namely the US and NATO, betraying Russia, and I agree with that Russian perception. He also had to keep the organised crime and the oligarchs in check that under Yeltzin really where about taking over the state completely.

There is a tendency in the West to overlook faults and dark spots in the biographies of people opposing the Russian state and Putin. True for some oligarchs in the past Putin cracked down on, whom always were seen as innocent victims only with their shady sides being ignored, and I red rumours at least about Nawalny not being that harmless a guy, too, but a radical nationalist. He would not be the first saint coming to power and then revealing himself as a demon instead.

I do not defend Putin, nor his ways, I simply try to cold-bloodedly explain his actions by the needs he faces, and the motive of his to save himself and to protect - an autocratic, Putinesque - Russia. It makes no sense to want to define Russia'S interests from a Western view. One needs to look at it from a Russian view, only then you can see the predictability in it, and only then you can form a realistic policy towards it. Neither naive optimism nor demonising nihilism helps in this.

I think however that Putin sooner or later enters his end game now. He does not become younger. But who wants to predict who comes after him? And whether that somebody will be better or worse - and from what perspective? Western priority must be the stability of the state, and the safety of the nuclear and biological weapons, and the prevention of another nuclear scientists drain like after the collapse of the USSR. These and nothign else are the West'S essential interests. Evertyhign else beyond that is sentimental and luxurious, is bonus. Maybe not from the Russian people's perspective. But from ours. Leave Russia to the Russians - as long as it is not at our cost. Especially the EU is well-advised with that motto. It has demonstrated its impotence quite often now in the recent decade and imminent present. it must not bite off once again more than it can chew and make a joke of itself. Always trying to lift more than one can bear only ruins the intervertebral discs.

P.S. There is somethign about Navalny that has me being on my guard against him. I do not trust him more than I would trust Putin. Not at all, that is. He does not show the West all that he is, I have the feeling.
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