[WargamerScott]

I've got a bad feeling about this whole situation. I was watching the news today and some talking-head diplomat said that even if we shot down the missile, NK would not retaliate in any fashion because they know we would win any resulting war. But I disagree. This is a situation that is fraught with the possibility of mis-calculation. Look at the situation from the NK side of the board:

First, they know we are fighting in Iraq, a war that is putting something of a strain on our armed forces (largely minor, but still noticeable). This would seem to work in their favor as a major Korean War would be a huge drain in resources forcing the US military to now fight for resources for both Iraq and Korea. Logistically, that is going to hurt us. Second, the Iraq War, a low-intensity war if ever there was one, has proved to be politically divisive. I would argue that they would see this as a continuation of the Vietnam-era "cut-and-run" mentality that has deluded both Hussein and UBL about American resolve in a long-term war. Furthermore, they know that Bush has used all his political capital for Iraq---how likely could he convince other nations to rally behind the US again in yet ANOTHER war? These factors would be perceived as another plus in their column. Third, they know that even if they could never hope to win a war against the US, they could inflict a great deal of damage before they go down as both Seoul and Japan are within easy arty range---the economic implications alone would be devastating. Yet another plus in their column. Fourth, I bet they believe that China would intervene to stop the complete elimination of NK by the US, thereby limiting the total risk to the NK government. Finally, the NK leadership, like Hussein, is very insulated and living in something of a fantasy world. Simple bombastic self-delusion is a high probability.

Now, I'm not saying these are accurate assumptions, just that they could be easily perceived to be so on the part of the NKs. Taken together, this political/military calculus could give them reason to believe that the US will not interfere in a missile launch. If they do go ahead, and we shoot it down, this same calculus would seem to argue for military retaliation of some sort. And that could easily lead down a slippery slope toward open warfare.