Please - Nooo...!
Quote:
Political scientist Helmut Norpoth is one of the experts who was not stunned in front of the TV on November 8, 2016. The day Donald Trump prevailed against Hillary Clinton in the presidential election. At that time he predicted the result - based on a model calculation that he developed himself.
The German-born scientist had calculated a chance of victory for Trump of 67 to 88 percent. And now, a few months before the US elections, Norpoth makes a forecast that should be a warning to many observers: Trump is likely to remain in office with a 91 percent chance, the expert believes.
He told n-tv: “It's a déjà vu experience. In the meantime, there are not even individual surveys in which Trump leads. Not even with Fox News, although the station is close to Trump. The big difference to 2016 is the corona pandemic, which is why we are not experiencing normal politics. The election campaign itself is under a lockdown. ”Because of the special circumstances this year, the polls“ certainly had no predictive value. ”
Norpoth's model is based less on polls than on assumptions about voter behavior. For example, he assumes a kind of natural pendulum movement and analyzes the results of the primaries particularly closely. So far, it has been possible to make predictions that almost always hit the mark. Norpoth applied it retrospectively to all elections since 1912 - and was correct in 25 out of 27 elections.
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However, I wonder if this man's model really can reflect the impact the Corona pandemic has. I mean I said myself just moths ago Trump most likely will win once again due to the Democrats morbid personnell setup, but then came Corona and the high death toll and the Trumpian
Breathe And Let Die Show which made me changing my assessment: I simply cannot think so low of a people to assume that all this utmost failure and displayed cynism does not have an effect for the better, and so I think since this summer that Trump is doomed if Biden does not mess it up for him. I think if the model has not been adopted to deep-striking events like this pandemic, it necessarily must currently sit beside the rails it was intended to usually roll on. And so I hope the man is wrong for his third in then 28 times.
From FOCUS magazine, Germany.