Quote:
Originally Posted by Mr Quatro
If it takes two weeks to show up that you have Covid-19 and caught it from someone that didn't have any of the virus symptoms ... How can they trace it to where you got it?
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That's a great question. Unfortunately, the answer is complicated. But it uses probability and inference networks. I tried to write a simple example but it turned out some complicated that even I could not understand my own example.
It is not as simple as determining that person A gave COVID10 to person b, who later gave it to person c. The best we can, absent of any type of viral identification is to be able to determine that "It is more likely that person x was infected by person q than it is that person x was not infected by person q".
One of the many problems is that people can be infected with SARSCOV-2 and never develop the disease COVID19 We also don't know how man people are infected by the SARS COV2 virus and only develop minor symptoms of COVID19 to the point that it is never reported.
We also don't know about how being exposed to multiple sources of SARS COV2 virus affects how a person gets infected.
Bottom line is that absent of any type of virus ID, there is no way to determine, with no uncertainty, that a specific person infected another specific person with SARS COV2 and that person developed COVID19 from that specific exposure.
At this point, I am not sure we understand if there is any difference between being exposed to SARS COV2 and being infected with SARS COV2. Their may be people who carry the virus and never develop the disease, but may be able to spread the disease.
Unfortunately, this still a lot we don't know about this virus.
If people are looking for a quick solution, I am afraid they will be disappointed. I am grateful that we have scientists all over the world working on this issue.