Quote:
Originally Posted by Catfish
So, it still can get much worse here.
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Of course it can get MUCH worse. Yesterday, Martenson opened this calculation, he showed that after what Italy has been through, only 0.8% of their population nevertheless has reached immunity so far. Needed for virusses with an estimated R0 (replication/spreading rate) like this one, are 75-90%, 80% he said.
Lets not forget that. Whatever we do, the only relief to all this is 80% herd immunity, either by infection and surviiving it, or by controlled infection via a vaccine.
The only good news is that around 80%, maybe even a bit more of infected people suffer from only mild symptoms that do not require hospitalization, just house quarantine for 3 weeks. This sounds harmless, but the killing risk lies in the hospitals being blocked for all other patients that are not Corona, too.
Also, quite some of those who had to go to hospital and surived it, suffer for the rest of their lives from lung deficits, 20-30% of their lung capacities are gone.
Realistically, vaccine not before 2021. In the best and smoothest and problem-cleaned scenario imaginable, late autumn. But the nothing must go wrong, and everything and everybody must work perfectly. Not very likely, but highly unlikely.