[Skybird]

Johnson said the UK could turn the course in 12 weeks, that is 84 days.

Lets do some math. There are two claims out there:
1. the replication speed of the virus is a doubling every 3 days,

2. and a multiplication by a factor of 10 every 12-13 days.

Lets assume there are already 1000 infections. Take this as a base number.

In case 1, a doubling every 3 days. Its then 2000 after 3 days, 4000 after 6 days, 8000 after 9 days, 16000 after 12 days, 32.000 after 15 days, 64000 after 18 days, 128K after 21, 256K after 24, 512k after 27, 1024K after 30, 2028K after 33, 4048K after 36, 8096 after 39, and now rounded: 16200K after 42, 32400K after 45, and 64400K after 48.

This does not mean than all these people are ill simultaneously, its the number of people who caught the infection, the average duration of the illness seems to be around 2-3 weeks, so the numbers get reduced again, people have immunity then and the virus finds it more dfifficult to spread at its former pace, so then the curve starts to flatten out after a certain time. Still. The shadow of big numbers and logarithmics should be obvious.

In case 2, 10x every 12 days, it looks like this: 10.000 in 12 days, 100K in 24 days, 1 million in 36 days, 10 million in 48 days. It runs slower, but still: it runs up and away. the same limitations to the pace of the virus reproduction rate apply as explained above.

Its just numbers gymnastics, I ignore some factors I know, and necessarily leave out factors that I certainly do not know of. But it helps to visualise what a fearsome foe we are up against.


Johnson'S 12 weeks claim may prove to become the longest 12 weeks of our lives. He spoke for the UK, but the math is not that much different for other countries.


Nobody mentions Africa that much. Culturally and regarding health system structures, they are not set up in any way to cope with this. I expect to see nothing else but apocalyptic numbers and pictures from there.