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Originally Posted by Onkel Neal
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Its real, in a way. The number in fact comes not from the government or health ministry, but professor Droste, who is a leading expert for Corona virusses worldwide, i mentioned him, without name, before. He is one of the discoverers of the SARS and belonged to the team developing the first quick test for sARS which was then released under his responsibility even before peer reviewing and testign was completed,he took the responsibility on his own cap just so to get the thing out the door and on the streets. He is seen as one of the gobal lead experts for corona virusses.
Droste gets his number from the R0 value, which indicates how many people an infected person infects himself per iteration of the whole process. So as long as there are many people around who have no immunization, the virus can spread unhindered and saturate the environment. Once this is done, any attempt of containment comes too late, so the priority must be to indeed contain while you still can and while there still are areas where the virus is not present. Thats why we are so royally screwed: we have left the virus so much time to spread unrecognised, that in our small countries there are practically no untouched regions left. This is different in China, apparently, which has many people, but also much more space to keep them separated, while having lcoked down traffic. Airlines still fly in the US, and busses and trains, in Germany they think abotu shuttuing down the railway system now. So that the virus cannot travel. Hongkong, Taiwan, South Korea, Singapore, on the other hand, small places in themselves, recognised the presence of the virus extremely early and
IMMEDIATELY reacted, that why they are successful in slowing down the infection speed. Once sufficient numbers of people in an environment have immunisation, either by vaccine or by having been infected and survived the desease, the virus simply does nto find sufficient numbers of vitims anymore to keep up its pace, so the graoh indicating new infections starts to flatten out, and the whole thing dies out. You remember the debate about measel spreading again and vaccination levels dropping? Thats what it is about. But what does that mean, flattenign the curve? In case of MERS,
the pandemic is running until today and since three years, just at a pace that it can be kept under a level that would overwhelm the health system. Indeed, now it is far from that. With Covid19, on the other hand, we are just in the starting phase...
So, the worst case scenario in Germany reads possibly two thirds of the population will get infected, unclear is over what time. They say usually the next 18-24 months.
The claim is not unopposed, another German expert says it underestimates the influence of the medical counterbattle and future medications and vaccines. But this counter argument is uncertain in itself as well. We do not know for sure. We only know that it will become much worse than it now is, that we risking getting overwhelmed by it, and that the Italians are already overwhelmed and are absolutely desperate and terribly trageides happen in their hospitals right now, in huge numbers. Tuskany and Lombardy belong to the European regions with some of the best health service structures on the continent, and different to what rockstar seem to think, their health care is not just that of any 3rd world country, but is very good in quality. Their bed saturation for the population is in the sam elevel like yours in the US.
And now their houses have run out of essentials like O2 . That much overwhelmed they are. Could you imagine what it means how desperate thign smst be if patients cannot even be provifded with O2 anymore and strike aptients get delouevred after 90 mintues instead of 8 minutes - and then are left lying in the corridors andnothign is done, becasue nbody is free anymore to do anything? They now must actively make decison whom they let die. Such conditions we usually only know from times of war.
Meanwhile the CDC has run out of key chemical agent that only gets produce din chi9na that is needed to do some inevtiable splitting thing with the virus DNA. While Rockstar boasts with how fantastic it all is, the CDC in the first weeks or so managed ot get just 170+ testings done, with hilarious with unreal bureactarzcial hurdles attached to it, becasue the intially ordere dtestkits were altered by the CDC to become multi-uporse kits - whcih showed to not function correctly. Weeks were wasted this way when testign aggressively shouold have been pushed. Just two of the prime exmaple how royally the American adminstrative level of health prividying system in the uS has failed. Its terrible in Italy and Iran, its not nive in Germany - but it seems in the US it really sucks.
Some days ago there was reprt in the Guardian, showing that in the whole UK they have only 29 or 30 certain types of intensive care repsoratoroy untis with special equipment as needed in case of very severe pneumonia. This thign sare expensive and usually do not ifteh ge tused, i think thats why thry got rid of them in hugh quantity. The brits will get flattened by what is coming at thenm, I fear, island or not. They already have it on their isand, and onc ethe logarithmic progression has started, it is unstoppable, the graoh then cna only be flattend at the oprice of widneing it, means: fewer cases in a time interval (hopefully fewer cases than that the nubmer could overwhlem the system, that is what it all is about) at the cost of exteding the duration of the pandemic going on. With a vaccine not expected before deep in 2021, and now incraingly beign said nt before 2022, this story will do its damage an fallout for months to come. Do not expect it to be over in summer or autumn.
The latest video by Travweller mentions that it seems that our joy that only the old ones have high kill ratios, was too early, and that now the oyunger ones see their pohysicvolgicla reostence haveing been eroded. they start to get flushed into Italian clincis in growing numbers. this is not unknown from SARS: the old ones got hit first the younger ones second. The hope that both strains get killed by summer temperatures, also seems to not hold.
At the present time, evertyhign works against us. And the Chinese celebrate too early. Becaseu they already lift their quarantining regime. Nobody cna make me think that they have 90% of their populaiton immunised already. In other words: the second wave is ging to ge tthem later this year, and with more power than the first one if tit goes like with the usual bhaviour os seaosnal flu: two waves, the second in autumn then beign twice as intense as he first in late winter early spring.