Quote:
Originally Posted by Traveller
Sure, why not? Only about 6,000,000,000 more to go.  |
Consider how these cases evolve. They appear in China. A few weeks later an outbreak occurs in Egypt. Then in the US. All from international travel. People are infected and contagious long before they show symptoms. What are the odds that people who travelled from Egypt (and Italy, South Korea, etc) had contact with someone who had contact with someone from Wuhan?
I don't know how many Americans are in Egypt and traveling back to the US, likewise with other non-Americans being in Egypt and then travelling to the US but consider: let's say 10,000 people came from Egypt to the US in the last 3 weeks. That means the virus has spread wide enough in Egypt three weeks ago for some of the 10,000 travelers to have come in contact with someone from among the 98 million Egyptians and get infected before going to the US. That suggests that this was either a hell of a fluke or a lot of Egyptians are infected.
Right now the US looks very much like China did 6 weeks ago. Here's what we may have to look forward to. And remember: China was able to slow the rate of infection by draconian quarantine measures. People in the US may not abide by these steps, someone will get their feelings hurt by being told stay home.
