Western societies are vulnerable to mounting own losses, also their war index is low, means they find it harder to replace losses in young male fighters, because their women have less babies.
However I serously wonder how Iran would manage to sink or cripple a US carrier. It would need enorous assiahgcne by Chinese military and Chinese weaponry, and an intel-related effort that I thibk is beyond their reach.
US war index was 0.96 in 2018, and around 2.00 in the 70s.
Iran's war index in 2018 was 1.75, at the time they had their big war against Saddam's Iraq, it was around 4.3x. . They would not find a high-loss war like against Iraq as easy to digest anymore as back then, still they have bigger spiritual resistance in this regard. American mothers have less babies than Iranian ones.
Also, the war index is abot the ratio of young males versus old males. The morew young ones, the more aggressive, expansionistic energy a nation projects. Call it youth dynamics. Old people are too tired to want to fight battles and erect empires.
https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/w...-the-war-index
That foreign power's wars in this region go so badly, has a lot to do with this ^. It foucsses on Afghanistan, nevertheless it illusatrate why you must take this data into account when considering Iran as well.
Quote:
When American troops went into battle in 2001, Afghanistan’s war index was higher than ever. No matter how many smart bombs America and NATO dropped, Afghan forces grew stronger. The West was still not aware it was battling demographics. With an average of seven to eight children being born to each woman, Afghan insurgents could easily replace their losses.
So President Trump has good reason to feel uneasy about Afghanistan. Today Afghanistan’s pool of warriors numbers above 5 million; the country’s war index is almost 6.0.
This means the American military faces a difficult struggle in a still-volatile country. When a nation’s war index exceeds 3.0 (i.e. when there are 3,000 or more teens for every 1,000 older men) some form of violence becomes likely.
(...)
the hard reality is this: If the struggle in Afghanistan continues, in 13 years the pool of Afghan warriors will have jumped, since 2001, from 2.7 to 7.3 million men, and its war index of 4.24 will still be four times higher than in the US. If politicians push their armed forces toward combat, military leaders should first focus on the enemy’s war index. Where the index is 3.0 or higher, generals should think twice about intervening. If intervention cannot be avoided, military leaders should remember the expensive lessons learned by the Russians and the West alike: Planes, tanks, and troops have a limited impact when aggression is being driven by demographics.
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I quote this not to distract from Iran to Afghanistan, but because there is a general lesson to be elarned form it, that by tendency is valid regarding Iran as well.