Gunnar Heinsohn about why Turkey and Syria are fighting.
https://translate.google.de/translat...echtlingsfalle
Quote:
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Regardless of the up to 500,000 civil war deaths, between 2010 and 2020 Syria’s total population is growing from 21 to 25 to 26 million. Of these, 17 to 19 million live within national borders . That’s still six times more than in 1945. By 2040, it should be with 30 million internally even ten times as many . Syria’s government can not want the back soon 7 million exiles. Her youthful pressure would instantly transform the slaughtering slaughter back into full-scale warfare. Since Sunni Muslims were predominant, the Alawite, Christian and Kurdish minorities would also have to fear bloody revenge. Bashir Assad has expressed this concern unequivocally: „Although we have lost the best of our youth, we have become more homogeneous and healthier as a society.“ (" We lost the best of our youth.“) a healthier and more homogeneous society ; ")
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Most important points - completely ignored in the usual debates about Syria.
Gunnar Heinsohn taught war-related demography at the NATO Defense College (NDC) in Rome from 2011 to 2019. In Stavanger in 2018 he gave the Perspectives on the 15th anniversary of the Joint Warfare Center (JWC) of NATO. Further info on the author:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gunnar_Heinsohn
The "war index" mentioned in the essay, Heinsohn described in this essay from 2017 like this:
Quote:
A nation’s war index indicates its capacity for violent struggle. For example, Afghanistan’s index jumping from 4.6 to 6.5 meant that every 1,000 males aged 55 to 59 were being replaced by 4,600 to 6,500 young men aged 15 to 19. These young men were ready and eager to compete for success in society and victory on the battlefield. The Soviets, with their falling birth rates, could not match Afghanistan’s endless supply of military replacements and its unwavering willingness to fight.
Neither war, nor civil war, in Afghanistan weakened its ability to endure losses on the front lines. Their demographic advantage is enormous, and in times of conflict has grown. Even after suffering appalling casualties against the Soviets, Afghanistan’s war index increased, enlarging its capacity to absorb even higher losses. A decade after the Russians retreated, Afghanistan’s pool of fighting-age males (15 to 29 years) grew from 1.65 to 2.73 million. The unbreakable fighting spirit of young men had defeated the hardware of modern war.
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https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/w...-the-war-index
The war index for the US two years ago was just 0.96. That for Germany even weaker at 0.65. It means that 1000 males age 55-59 are followed by just 960 (650) young males age 15-19. In 2017, Syria'S war index was 4.02 (probably has changed dramaticlaly), and Turkey's 2.00