[Skybird]

1. Usually the Shia-Sunnio rivalry between Saudia Arabia and Iran gets a lot of attention - that Turkey also has ambitions to be the ruling dominator in the region often is overlooked. However, the Turks are no Arabs, and have a bad reputation amongst Arabs due to their brutal tyranny during the Ottoman empire. Iran, Saudi Arabia and Turkey all are rivals. Syria wanted to be that as well, so wanted Egypt, but both are busy with their own homework now.

Iran already supports Assad, with logistics, training, wepaons, special troops, intel. They probbaly will not themselves confront Turkish troops, since they already are in danger of getting a collision with the US in the Gulf. And why should they want that? For Iran, Syria is its proxy.



2. Russia, they will keep in mind that Turkey is a NATO member, formally at least, which of cours eis just a bad joke by now. Opening fire on Turkish military themselves could be the opening to an article 5 scenario, something that Turkey tries to trigger already now for its invasion of Syria. On the other side Moscow will not forget that the rifts between the US and Turkey are widening, and if they see a realistic chance to benefit from that rift and get away with striking Turkey due to Washington being too pissed by Turkey as if it would care any longer, they maybe will do. Syria for them is not just a proxy, but also a standing leg in the Mediterranean, they must balance between pleasing Assad and not getting drawn into a brawl that they do not want.

In other words: things are a bit complicated. Which is an understatement.

Note that I do not metion Europe. It plays no role here and is busy with dwarfening itsel further and further.

The Turks once again give evidence for why I am so strictly disliking them.

Bad fate for the Kurds. But they could have known that Washington would betray them. If I weere Europe, I would deliver them really strong SAM and ATGM weapons to knock turkish military out. And I would close the border to Turkey and send a strionbg fleet into the Adraeatic sea, selaing it off for migrants and Turkish navy as well. NBote that Turkey plays with fire offshore Cyprus as well, they want to claim the control of the gas fields there.

As I said, its all a bit complicated. The Kurds do pay the price once again. Its a ####### shame.

Libertarian that I am I of course support their natural right to decide for themselves if they want to be governed by foreign dictators or not. The claim by Turkey is invalid and a crime in itself. I am consistent there with my earlier opinions on independence movements in other regions.

I agree with the American pullout in principle. I however strictly oppose the conditions and circumstances and timing by which Trump has agreed to do so because Erdoghan wanted it. He took the most brutal way out, and not Americans but Kurds are bleeding for it. That is cyncial, and murderous.

Moscow giggles. And delivers Russian SAMs to Turkey and widneing the gap between the US and Turkey by that. Yes, they have no imminent need to react to anything, they collect dividends best by simply doing nothing and leaving their diplomatic game to like it is. Probably nobody in Syria is in such a comfortale position, like Russia. Putin realised the potential of the Syrian option early, long before the EU or Washington did, and set his bet on playing it strong. It pays off.