[Skybird]

They have a top class cyberwarfare division, and they must not scatter their conventional forces across so many places and along so long borders and along such long supply lines, as especially the US needs and wants to do. In other words: the US is, imo at least, hopelessly overstretched.



The base network of the US is a valuable ressource during peace time and in low intensity regional conflicts. In case of a real serious big war, many of them will turn into ashes in the first hours of such a war, and what that means in negative setbacks for the overly complex supply chain and especially digital network capability of the US, maybe nobody really knows. What is known however is that US forces decisively depend on these networks and are worth only half their money if needing to go without them. Which means they maybe then would be no match for a numerically superior enemy who is technologically as advanced, or almost as, and is operating under his own ground-based air protection umbrella.



The Chinese claim they can relatively reliably take out US carriers. And they have the numerical superiority in submarines in the region. They can turn areas of their interest in vicinity of their country into access denial zones, and I do not see the US being able to change that anymore. At the same time I do not share the almost monumental trust of the West in its anti.-missile capabilities. Since Gulf 91 it has shown time and again that anti-missiles systems do not get close to their claimed take-out quota, or make things even worse after having turned one big incoming object into a cloud of many small ones, like birdshot. At the same time, Russia or China woujkld not fire mostly relatiovely "harmless" improvised rockets like Hezbollah does in Lebanon - and even their rockets and missles get more advanced by now, thanks to Iran. And Israel's iron dome is not able to take them all out.



And different to American society, the Chinese public is more willing to high own losses if that is what it takes to win a war. The political and leadership structure of China is another plus for them in case of conflicts. It means a much shorter and quicker chain of command, and faster reactions to strategic changes during the war.


I think the US knows all this. And therefore, as an US ally in the region I would not trust into the US comign to my rescue if China goes loose cannons. Not in Taiwan. Not on the Phillipines, probably not even in Japan. With Trump in office, my faith would be even smaller. I think the US is no longer automatically the winner of a military confrontation with China. And the US will not go on another war adventure against an at least equal enemy if it expects to loose it anyway.