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Originally Posted by Platapus
No one is going to benefit from a war between Iran and the US. Not even the fringe groups. They operate better in Low Intensity Conflicts.
The only entities that would benefit from this war would be parties not involved like China or perhaps Russia. It is unknown whether Russia will get involved in operation in Iran at this time.
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Somebody fired missiles nevertheless.
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But we should always consider alternative hypotheses. There is even a methodology that we use called Analysis of Competing Hypotheses of which I am a big fan.
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Yes. I use it myself. In the movie "World War Z" with Brad Pitt it was called the (Israeli) tenth man method, it means that it was the duty of one man in the advisor council that if all others agreed on one thing, this one man had to assume and plan accordingly on ground of the total, direct opposite, as a safety. I however recommend care when using this methid becasue it can easiyl lure you into total self-aparlysis and utmost inefficiency in dealing with what actually IS the penultimate reality that finally will find you one way or the other.
You repeated that you see Iran not benifitting from thsi attack. But you fall victim to one flaw there - you define their benefit on groudns of your reason, and see it through your eyes - not theirs. But the latter is essential, even more so when dealign with affairs in this region of the world where shine and pride counts so much and the need to maintain a proud facade even is reflected in the overboarding floweriness of verbal phrasing and metaphors in language. That is true for arabs, but for Persians, whom I happen to know a bit, too.
From an Iranian point of view you have severla valid motivations for these attacks. This does not mean that the attack is carried out by Iran. But evertyhign hints at them currently, like it is the case with the mine attacks in the Gulf, too.
Dont look at it through your eyes. Look their their eyes, at least use their glasses. Then it makes sense.
Ikalugin probaly is on the right track when saying they were "signalling". Me too thinks they are communicating a message: a reminder of that it takes two to tango.