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Originally Posted by Skybird
I focussed on the de facto trade and currency war when saying that China'S quiver of arrows is almost full, and America'S almost or even is empty. The taxes by Trump can be and have been countered by currency devaluation by China. China has de facto forbidden agricultural imports from america, which has to be swallowed by some core group of Trump'S voters.
Whatever Trump throws at China in these conflicts, currency and taxes and economy - China can counter it, and than retaliate some more.
And what else can Trump now do? There is not much left.
The boycot on Huawei only will have short and medium-term effects, for it was the starting signal for the Chinese to focus stronger on producing the American-imported components themselves from near future on. And they can ban Microsoft, Facebook, Google and the likes completely on the Chinese market, if needed. Wjhat Trump can do, the Chinese can as well.
Face it, Rockstar: so far Bejing has played with Trump very nicely and gently.
Further, the currency devaluation competition wanted by Trump and now done by Bejing, hurts exporting nations different from these two. The Euro becomes more expensive by these acts, and so do European (=German) exports. It will not get forgotten, at some future opportunity the bill for this will be sent to Washington in return.
Militarily, I think since years already that an American victory should not be taken for granted. And the balance in these years has constantly shifted in favour of the Chinese. I think due to the fact that such a war would be fought close to China, the chances are better for China already now. Land based missiles, land based air power, logistics and length of supply lines, number of navy units in service and in production: it all counts for the Chinese. Plus the circumstance that China and Russia have not hidden their new-found military cooperation. All together that makes for some very tough nut to crack. And the qualiuty of the Chiense forces today is not that of 30 years ago. Their modernization program and its speed was breathtaking in the past 15 years. Technologically they may not yet be totally oen par with the US, but numbers and supply lines more than make up for compensating the remaining difference. The US would need to kill much of the navy and supporting infrastructure on land, and their air force - China only needs to sink one or two carriers and a small part of the operational US submarines in the region, while China's public opinion at home can sustain much higher losses on sea, than would the American public.
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I will only go out on the limb to say that China and the U.S. each has it's own economic strengths and weaknesses. We could spend days pointing them out and just scratch the surface. But from what I've read China is not some unstoppable economic juggernaut that can win the day by simply devaluing the Yuan a few points, by doing so they are just buying a little time and some good PR.
Considering China's recent history of occupation, abuse and humiliation by the British and other foreign powers they are not gonna be quick to back down. Again, its things like this which can turn into a shooting war real quick. I for one take nothing for granted and never ever underestimate your enemy.