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Old 05-22-19, 08:21 AM   #5
Skybird
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Huawei takes anothe rbroadside, fully aimed below the waterline, and it could easily show to be even more damaging than the Android ban.



https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-48363772


This whole thing is extrenely coplicate dmatter, imo. It is part of an ordinary trade war, yes, but that is only half the truth. The Chinese are known violators of copyright contracts and have a repuation of dealing trade policy issues exytrenely unfair and biased tot heir own advanatge. Huawei is formally a private enterprise that is advcertising with its independence form the state and govenrment, but in realityx it is quite strictly influenced by the Chiense government via informal channels. The uS has choosen Huawei as a key target for it soffensive becasue of its flagship statuds, it already started with the arrest of the daughter of the company founder. The aim in dealing with Huawei imo is not just raising pressure in Trumps usual trade war, but indeed to drestroy Huawei as a thgreatrening compeitior on the market that is about to overtake Samsung, Apple anyway, and become the globla number one. It also is to deliver the Chinese a serious blow as penalty for their murky trade policies derrangements and their ignorrance for intellectuala property rights, an issue the Europeans so far have done nothing serious about, at their own cost. All the blackmailed knowledge transfer so far has run for free, more or less, for the Chinese. I thuink it is very high time to confront the Chinese over these polcies of theirs.


Thats why I cannot one-sidedly condemn the American moves here. I regret the likely fall of Huawei, which seems to be heading to become a smaller company now, only present on the Chinese market in the future, and their past role in bringing massive movement into the high price segment of smartphones was a welcomed grounding of things and probbaly contributed to the sakle sproblems of Apple, which I welcome since the overpriced hype around Apple is in my book pure insanity, and almost religious cult. Still, despite the quality of Huawei smartphones, the assassination of an unwanted and leading competitor in the network equipment business, and their wanted challenge to the bloatware deviuces of Samsung, I must sympathise with the American confrontaiton of the Chinese over the mentioned many issues. The Europeans obviously do not have the guts to do it.


Just that America is not invulnerable to retaliation. But as a key article of the BBC I think yesterday said, the likely retaliation over stopping trade with rare earths, as has been practiced by China already in 2010 against Japan, is unlikely to bite, because while it is true that china dominates the world market for these by almost 90%, this domninance is not due to owning all rare earths of the globe (China owns close to just 40% of the global known reserves), but due to the Chiense lead in mining them, the rest of the world is said to be 15 years behind in building according capacities. South America and also the US themselves own large rsetrves of rare earths, too. The one group that does not sit in any of the available rescue boats here, is once again Europe. And Trump probably was told that, and started grinning over it.



Also, with the current domestic currency and credit problems in China, its option to retaliate on fiscal markets may be currently limited. But I am not certain what is going on there, I find it extremely diffcult to gain trustworthy information on the interior financial situation in China. Stockmarkets certainly signal not too much trust currently. News on the credit situation in China often seem to be infleunced by ideological claims and wishful thinking: Chinese fincances must fumble becasue they should fumble because that would weaken China and strengthen strategic Western positions (at the price of wreaking havoc on stockmarkets).



Anyway, ARM stopy dealing with Huawei, thats the news of the day and it means even bigger problems for Huawei.



Lesson to be learned: open license software should be helped to get a big revival and Europoe must learn the importance of putting utmost priority on raising its own IT key components industry independent from US patents and copyrights. The conclusion must be not to deepen the according cooperation with the US, but to untangle ties in this key segment of industry. Else the US can blackmail Europe any time by the same legal ways it now strangles Huawei with.



European-Us friendship must be seen with much less enthusiasm and more cool calculating realism. And no, I do not think the future looks convincingly bright, with Eurooe sitting on the shorter end of the seesaw - it allowed to trail too far behind in key future industries and high tech departments. I do not see how that lead of the US can be caught up with during my remaining lifetime.
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