Quote:
Originally Posted by Mr Quatro
It's okay to bring up this subject again about China, Taiwan, USA conflicts of interest ... We did it before on a thread by Kapitan, but it's worth another try.
I like your view points Sky, but mine hasn't changed ... Simply this the USA/USN is not going to wage another minor skirmish with a major nuclear country like China. If you think China could win a naval battle with the USN you are wrong. The USA would defeat China so bad they would consider taking the first shot with nuclear warheads on ICBM's and they wouldn't hold back till all of their missiles were expended.
I don't think China would take a chance by provoking the USA into a conflict over Taiwan.
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20 years ago I woudl have agreed with you. But its not 1999 anymore, its 2019, and in ten years it will be 2029.
The article makes some hard-to-counter background aerguments about how the econoimic structure of the Chinese economy and its differences to that in the Us works for a further and accelerating shifting of the balance. They do not just copy Wetsenr technologyx anymore. They innovate it and see their military having much si8mplier access to tehcnology invented i nt he civilian sector - and no more come major tehcnologicla advances form the military branch and then spread into the civilian area - all too often now it is the other way arounds.
I also think that tehcnological leadership only to some degree can comensate nuzmericla inferiuority. And the Chinese ability to drown Taiwan under a flood of missles and enforce air superipority with planes, is intimdating already now. This at a time when own losses get accepted less and less easily by Western publics, American carrier groups being forced further and further away from Taiwain in a war - most likely so, at least - and financial underfunding meets lacking personnel pools in Wetsenr forces in general: maybe not as intense in American forces as in European ones, but still so.
The West is less and less able to afford military adventures of growing costs, both money and personnel. Western losses weigh much heavier therefore since the West finds it more diffiocult to digest them, than China.
And I do not even list the better logistical situation for China with its artificial island-creations and shorter supply lines, close harbours and continental missile umbrella against threats. Such a war would not be fought off coast San Francisco, right...
I linked that article just becasue these economic background factors influencing the ability of a nation to raise its military level mostly do not get mentioned in public debates. I found it interesting and important. The West still dreams of coexistence with a pacifist China, like European economies still dream of a peaceful coexistence wiht the Chinese industry and economy. China since decades prepares itself for the military conquest of Taiwan and keeping the American forces away. And since the second Gulf War '91 at the latest they udnerstood that they had to fundamentally rasie their tehcnological abiulities. And thats what they did. The difference in both attitudes, Chinas'S and America'S/theWest's, is fearsome. Even more so since the Chinese claim to have historical rights that go beyond territorial claims, but base on the belief thgat they just retake their dominant seat on the planet that historically was China'S "birthright" anyway. The century of Wetsern dominance in China, was just a short "lapse". A mishap of giggling history.
And no, I cannot see an american victory that much as a given anymore, since years already. To me it already now would be an open case. And the balance still is shifting against America/Japan/Taiwan, more so every month and every year. The PR-Chinese regime will get its will on Taiwan, of that I am certain.