Quote:
Originally Posted by u crank
I'm gonna say no for a number of reasons but the main one is Trump's base which hasn't gone south yet and probably won't. According to an NBC News–Wall Street Journal poll released Sunday Trump enjoys an 88 percent approval rating among Republicans. There is a lot of bad news in that poll for Trump but going against that kind of base support would be suicide for the party.
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That's going on the assumption the base will hold. Nixon also had a firm base and polled well among GOP voters up until Watergate made Nixon untenable to the Party and his base and support dissolved; the fallout was such that Ford, who other than pardoning Nixon, really didn't have a whole lot of negatives, did not enjoy any of the benefits of the then GOP 'base'. If Trump is impeached or resigns, and if he pardons himself or if Pence pardons Trump, there might be an equivalent defection as with Nixon/Ford...
Also, the core base, those who are not voting GOP because they don't like a DEM candidate or just because they habitually vote for whoever the GOP runs, is only about roughly 32%-34% of the total registered electorate and it's kinda hard to win with only about a third of the vote...
There is also recent history to consider: the midterms saw the GOP take a real slap to the face when they lost the House and saw a very large number of areas they thought were secure become nail-biting races; and that reversal came only two years into Trump's terrm; such a situation usually only occurs in the second term midterms when the voters have six years to develop any distaste for and administration and its party; could they also suffer from such defections of support in 2020? And the House races are very significant in that they are 'closer to the ground' in terms of measuring voter sentiment; for the DEMs to take back about 10% of the total House seats in 2016 seems to indicate the natives are restless and unhappy...
If the GOP has to field an alternative candidate, who would it be? Maybe someone I find to be viable as someone not a wingnut, but not so centrist as to alienate the Far Righter, yet with an image of stability that may appeal to Independents like myself: Paul Ryan leaps to mind. Depending on who eventually ends up driving the DEM clown car, I could see myself voting for him...
Quote:
Originally Posted by u crank
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And of course the Dems have their own problems. A war is brewing between the moderates and the new hard lefties. The hard left/progressive wing of the party had to take it on the chin once when the DNC anointed their preferred candidate. Hard to say how they would react this time but I don't think it will be good. I hope CNN and MSNBC are up to the challenge. 
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I think too much is being made of the DEM Left; they make the most noise, and get a lot of the media attention, but do they really hold as much sway as the GOP wants voters to believe? The DEM Left was just as active and visible in 2016, but in the end they were all "sound and fury, signifying nothing". The DEMs knew a Bernie wouldn't be palatable to a broad spectrum of voters and scuttled him; a wise move. I think, as with the GOP 2016 'clown car', a lot of the less acceptable DEM candidates wil be weeded out; Bernie is a non-starter (age and the stigma of a 'loser') and a lot of the others will either dropout once they realize the DEM voters don't give a rat's about their running or they will just not have enough resources to sustain a full run. The key element is the large possibility of a dark horse getting the nod, much in the way Obama got his nomination...
Once Super Tuesday is over the vision will be clearer. Now all we really have is a lot of chatter and smoke and mirrors. Things and people worried about with such fervor now may turn out to be "sound and fury, signifying nothing"...
(Shakespeare quotes: just tryin' ta give a lil' cultcha and class to the thread and us mugs...
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