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Old 01-03-19, 11:47 AM   #5
ikalugin
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Nuclear forces were never mentioned as a mature, rational govt. would never think of using them in these modern times. The U.S outnumbers China with the variety and number of nuclear weapons it can field and the Chinese would do well to remember that.
This perception is not only wrong, it is dangerous, as it undermines credibility of deterrence.


Not only could nuclear armed states have reasons to use nuclear weapons first in general (for dammage limitation for example) and plan for it specifically (as documented by the US NPR for example), there are many, many ways a conventional war may push for use of nuclear weapons, for example via entanglement.
And then there is a whole group of scenarios where one side mis-perceives something of another.


I would suggest starting with this brief by Acton&co:
https://carnegieendowment.org/2018/1...ties-pub-77620
I can link more papers later.


p.s. there are many other mis-perceptions here, for example regarding the Soviet intentions and plans for the naval warfare, but they are less important.
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Last edited by ikalugin; 01-03-19 at 11:58 AM.
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