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Originally Posted by Onkel Neal
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The politer man of the two with more foresight and patience, maybe...?
Trump kills TTIP, Trump imposes tarriffs, EU wanted TTIP, EU wanted free trade. What did they agree in intention yesterday? No tarriffs, free trade.
It all still stands on feet of clay, however. If Trump'S morning coffee was too cold, he will kill it with one tweet again making Junckers shedding his coffee on his lap.
And not forget this: France opposes the concessions made by Junckers.
Good interview with Gabriel Felbermeyer, an Austrian leading the centre for foreign trade at the IFO institute over here.
https://translate.google.de/translat...tml&edit-text=
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The trade policy of populist politicians, of course, looks very different from that of the technocrats who have dominated the scene so far. But threats are part of negotiating between mercantilists - that's how I would characterize almost all trade politicians of old or new schools. No one makes concessions without a counter-deal. In a way, Trump had no other choice: because the US tariffs are lower than the European ones, he had little to offer and sat in negotiations on the shorter branch. With his credible threats to break WTO law, or at least to bend it so that it squeaks, he has gained a better bargaining position.
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How serious is Trump? That's really the big question. But you can already see that he sees the costs of his previous trade policy. Otherwise he would not compensate American soybeans now. His policies are also not popular in many areas of industry; On balance, the companies do not create new jobs. Even the washing machine manufacturer Whirlpool , who had indeed initiated and enforced tariffs on foreign competitor products, suffers from higher steel prices and suddenly finds protectionism no longer so great. Maybe this realization is slowly infiltrating the White House. As more press reports about relocation, profit warnings et cetera get around, Trump worries about the upcoming Midterm polls. Many influential Republican senators and deputies have also received the message; they mobilize against Trump's customs policy.
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The EU is not China. That's what Mr. Trump should know. One thing is for sure: If the US charged cars with 25 percent import duty, then the EU would fight back counter-duties, and soybeans would certainly be affected. If Trump renounces the car duties , then the soybean oils of the Europeans are off the table. But even if Mr. Juncker is not available as a bean buyer, the market will do it. Chinese tariffs on US soybeans cause China to buy more from South America, displacing European demanders. These then increasingly buy from the USA.
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the EU can not force anyone to buy expensive liquefied gas from America if cheap pipeline gas from Russia is available. Nevertheless, it makes a lot of sense to invest in liquefied natural gas terminals on both sides of the Atlantic. In the end, this may even lower prices for consumers because the new competition will lead Gazprom to a different pricing policy. Fast relief for the US current account will certainly not. Not even if Germany would do without last minute construction of Nordstream 2.
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