Quote:
Originally Posted by mapuc
Wonder how I shall explain this.
I truly hope all this will end in a diplomatically agreement.
Should it however turn into a war I would if the war stay conventional throughout the whole conflict not be worried.
I know USA would as far as possible try to avoid civilians.
When it comes to NK I fear they will start sending lots and lots of shells towards the Capital of SK. or even worse, when they are pressed up in a corner and see no other way than sending what they have of ICBM and other missiles against SK, JP, USA and Guam.
It would be over in about 2-3 weeks if stay conventional or less than that. If it turn into something more terrible thing the war will be very short.
Markus
|
The DPRK has no interest in letting the US stomp it into the dirt by playing to the Americans strength. They will go special weapons first, because if they sit around and wait, their weapons will be picked off one by one until there's nothing left for them to use and their one ace is gone.
No, I can see two battle tactics for them to use.
1) They launch a nuclear strike on US and South Korean airfields across South Korea, Japan and Guam. Ports are also hit but the primary targets are airfields. There is the risk of Seoul getting hit as well, especially as the ROK would likely start shooting across the DMZ as the Scuds come in, so the DPRK will fire back.
The DPRK will then remind the US that it still has an ICBM capability, and if the US does not accept their offer of an immediate ceasefire and negotiated settlement of the conflict then they will launch their ICBMs against the American mainland. The US will then have to take the decision to risk the nuclear destruction of its cities or to honour its commitments to Japan and South Korea. The classic 'Paris for Washington' dilemma which inspired Charles De Gaulle to develop Frances own nuclear deterrent.
2) They go all in straight off the bat. ICBMs and all. The rapid breakdown of order in such a scenario means that it would be difficult to bring the war to a close, particularly as all efforts will be being made to kill Kim Jong-un, who is best placed to end any North Korean military actions (see the film 'By Dawns Early Light' for why decapitation strikes on the enemy military in war-time can extend a war rather than end it). This may result in the US having to slog its way to Pyongyang, and perhaps onward to the Yalu providing China does not get involved. The final death toll will be very high*.
I don't think we're there yet. I think there's more escalation to go before war becomes likely. The next missile test will give us an idea of their plans, it will, by my guesswork, either be Juche-bird (a live nuclear warhead detonation in international Pacific waters) or the Guam mission (a non-nuclear bracketing of Guam), or potentially the prelude to Guam which would entail a salvo firing of Hwasong-12s on a similar trajectory to the last test.
We'll see. With both sides committed to escalation though, at some point a war becomes extremely likely unless one side backs down, but I think it would cost too much face for either side to do this. So that's
fun.
*And the award for understatement of the year for 2017 goes to this sentence.