[Skybird]

I repeat: there ahve been reports saying that the Nkorean quick advances in their program would not have been possible without help from Russia or China, and that the equipment used in those missile developnments and as carrier platforms, bases on Chinese material.

Stakes raise higher and higher in the South Chinese sea: ressources fields, artifical island building and all that. If the US does not fall back and give up there, a war there only is a question of time in the coming 10-20 years, I assume. The one Leviathan does not want to give up his power. The other Leviathan grabs for right that power and wants it, no matter the cost. This cannot go well forever.

Do not trust China. NKorea distracts the US from the conflict with the nChinese in the South Chinese sea, and in case of war may bind and even kill some US ressources, certainbly affect the US bases in Southern Korea. Logistics and supplies will be drained to serious degrees (recall the speed at which smart ammunition and missiles got consumed in the second - 91 - and third - 03 -Gulf war). Now do the math - who benefits from this?

If China would mean serious business with Kim, they would not hold a fleet parade offshore NKorea, but would stop economic aid and delivery of key technology. Again: indications are strong that China helped and still helps NKorea to accelerate their nuclear program. Maybe Russia as well.

A Chinese fleet manouver offshore NorthKorea to me sends a very different message - to the US: "If you want to attack Northkorea, you have to get by us first." As long as they are there, the US Navy cannot reach NorthKorea without needing to slam into the Chinese navy first.

China has a common land border with Northkorea. They do not need a fleet offshore NKorea to send a warning. Amassing troops and planes and missile artillery at the border, would be more effective for "communicating". And could be sustained for much longer. But they don't do that. They just move some ships into the path of the US Navy's strike vectors instead. North Korea is an annoyance for China. The US navy and the American presence in South Korea is a major threat.

Conclusion...?

There is only one motive why everybody in the West waits and hopes for the Chinese to get somethign done about Kim (what, btw? Invading?) And that is that the West hopes the Chinese fairy queen will get the hot potatoes out of the fire for us, for we are not willing to care for it ourselves. And even if imaginign for a moment the Chinese are wanting the same as the West: the defusing of the conflict, the Northkoreans have pushed themselves into a psychological corner wherte they canot ge tout again. They are now like a angry dog surrounded by walls of mirrors. They watch the mirrors and freak out more and more every second. Its psychology. I think the US navy already now cannot win a major war with China anymore. The US will not be eager to risk a war with China over Northkorea. Europe is a total fail militarily, and would not even be able to sort this thing out if it would happen not on the other side of the planet,m but in the baltic or mediterranean sea. So: nothing will be done. Prepare to welcome Northkorea in the club of nuclear powers soon.

Finally, there are the southkoreans themnselves. Very possible that they will be the greatest objectors to a military option for the Noireth Korean problem. North Korea cannot eradicate then south militarily,l. but it is very capable to unleash an awful lot of damage and disaster. There were doubts during the cold war that the Westgerman government would ever agree to the use of NATO nukes on German soil (thus rumours hold it that the Allies would not have asked them seriously anyway). I expect to see Sourthkorean reservations at play as well.

I wish and hope I am wrong with all what I write here. But I follow the demands of reasonable thinking here, and reject wishful thinking. That one of the two worst scenarios turn true (nuclear armament of the North accepted, or war), is the most likely outcome currently.

And then there is the temper of the Doinald, and his lackign self-control. I wonder whether the idea of the US military revolting against its commander-in-chief, really is absolutely unimaginable.