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Old 07-06-17, 08:17 AM   #2
Skybird
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Join Date: Sep 2001
Location: the mental asylum named Germany
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I did, and for very good profit in the past, but I meanwhile have completely withdrawn my assets from the paper market and vulnerabilities of mobile/online banking businesses (the only realistic way, more or less, in Germany to pick single stocks instead of needing to buy complete fonds and packages where a bank want to sell you some bonbons packed in plenty of toxic waste.

Graham is a basis, yes, but I recommend also the biography about Guy Spear to learn a bit about the rotten morals in today's business and how to do these things maybe better without needing to sell your soul. I personally based on Austrian economics school, which of course is the basis and quite close to socalled value investing. John Mihaljevic also is a good name to read. But best is to learn to get a thorough understanding of the reasons so called Austrian economics are basing on.

I do not discuss for priciple reasons specific tasks, brands, companies, stocks in public.

However, a warning, that is why I have pulled out and went from "investing" to "securing". Any investment strategy is the condensate of empirical experiences from the past. Any advise formulated on grounds of such investment strategies bases on the preassumption that the environment and the conditions that define it and in which past experiences formed up and repeated themselves, is still intact. And this is what I doubt. Our raping of the profound fundament for a reasonable monetarian system, our idea of money, has led us to a situation where the trusting into rules of the pastr more and more is not reasonably justified, but takes the character of mere gambles, of kick and rush. We base on rules of advise there that were valid for the eocnomic world of the past decades, but that is not like that anymore, but troubling sick and tottering. Possible that if somewobdy buys sticks today, he gets away with it, and makes a good profit still. But also possible that despite the good reasons he had to buy these and noi other stocks, the monetarian distortions will all of a sudden erupt, and render the basis for the advise he trusted in as pointless. You canbot formulate trustworthy confgidence assessments there anymore - and that is what makes it so unpredictable nowadays. There is too much money in the system , by severla factors porbbaly, this money is only credit for which no securities exist, and the reuslt is that people with money desperately went into real assetts and "safe" investments that as a consequences became hopelessly overvalued.

This is no healthy situation. And thus I activated the emergency brake and pulled out. The show could run on for another 5 or 10 years. Or just 6 months, or may collapse already next week - I do not dare any predictions there anymore, took what I had, and transformed it into value formats of which I hope they will survive the coming cataclysm, and which are independent from paper money "value". I am responsible just for myself and have no own family, and assessed that I had enough "money" to hold out in the future and at higher age, and this is now what I try to protect.

If the criminal syndicates called states however change laws and play their enslaving criminal gangster games, this could then turn my decision into a mess. The worst gangster there is in the world, is the state.

The point is there are no more reasonable risk assessments and calculations possible anymore today, and there are no ore reaosnably safe oiptions left. They have turned the general system environment into such a messy mess that everything nowadays is a maximum risk for investors, savers, or whomever.

And this is what makes this all such a monumental, bloody crime. There are no safe otpions anymore, and no advise and rules form the past that can be trusted anymore. You need to accept gambling. And that is the opposite of investing.

Those index fonds and ETFs everybody speaks of, will become one of the major warheads impacting on the markets ooner or later, right because they are what they are. The inner dynamic and self-automatization these things include and cause on the stock market, does not get correctly understood and assessed. The more people buy these things, the more dangerous they become, and the more instabile the situation becomes.

I do not want to be young again in these years. The generation after the war had it much, much easier.

Investing on grounds of Austrian economics means that you run the risk of of bailling out too early, and going in too late. This is an implicit characteristic, yes. One has to weigh this against the incalculatable and unforseeable risks today's market environment necessarily present. You may loose a little, but increase your chances to not get hit by the big blow. State debts are higher than ever before, paper money is more useless than ever before, the crisis is worse than ever before. As you can conclude from all what I said here, I recommend maximum caution and a very defensive approach nowadays. Be careful. The makret environment is not as safe and stable anymore as past investment rules depend on in order to be trustworthy. In other words: the old virtues and tips and advice may not be as useful anymore as books make you think. Its very risky ground now. Thanks to paper money wars.
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Last edited by Skybird; 07-06-17 at 08:31 AM.
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