[Dowly]

Originally Posted by Bilge_Rat

when it comes to climate change, people don't seem to realise that CO2 emissions have been falling in both the USA and the EU. The big polluters are now China and India:

Yes, but to compare industrialized countries to those that are still industrializing is a bit misleading. The US and the EU are in a position to be able to try cut their net emissions, China and India are not, they concentrate on cutting their emission intensity instead. One also must take in consideration that both China and India have 1+ billion people, so comparing net emissions is, again, a bit misleading.

Per capita emissions are still way higher in the US than in China or India.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o...xide_emissions

1. The USA had the highest target for CO2 reduction (26-28 %), but China and India were allowed to increase their CO2 level until 2030!

http://climateactiontracker.org/countries/china.html

http://climateactiontracker.org/countries/india.html

Yes, they are allowed to do so, and this is again because they are going through heavy industrialization. But both countries are already taking steps to mitigate their emissions by using more and more zero-emission power. Especially India is beginning to use more and more solar power, because it has become cheaper than coal power. China is expected to peak its emissions before their 2030 target and they are building more and more renewable power sources , so they are definitely not just running wild even if allowed to.

2. The economic cost to the USA could be enormous:
http://www.thedailybeast.com/paris-c...was-a-bad-deal

That is based on the NERA study, which has been widely criticized since it was released and is now wildy out-of-date.

EDIT: Earlier link was criticizing an earlier report from NERA, my mistake. Here's a new one: https://www.theverge.com/2017/6/1/15...t-million-jobs

3. even with all that, the overall climate effect would be marginal:

The Daily Beast misleads with its quote. The study says that:

Assuming the proposed cuts (2015 INDCs) are extended through 2100 but not deepened further, they result in about 0.2°C less warming by the end of the century[..]

The 2015 INDCs are not planned to remain the same for the whole century, but are adjusted periodically if the country so chooses.

The study: https://globalchange.mit.edu/sites/d...%20Outlook.pdf


EDIT: Also,