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Originally Posted by Zosimus
Your argument relies on a lot of bad assumptions.
Let's run with your example. The target covers 8º and we are firing not a center shot but a salvo shot (that's what KM recommended, isn't it?) with a 4º salvo angle that we can control when we switch to salvo mode.
For ease of understanding, we will label the boat thus:
3 2 1 0 1 2 3 (0 is dead center).
So your torpedoes are aimed at -2 and +2
Suddenly your 27% permissible error rate goes out the window. The acceptable error rate must surely fall to 13% or less.
Additionally, you are assuming that the ship is going 10 knots. Most of the convoys I attack are going about 7 or 8 knots. If we re-calculate with 7 knots, and 13% error that means +/- 0.91 knots. That means that if you think the ship is going 7 but it's really going 8, then one of your torpedoes is going to miss.
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Let's go back and read the Submarine Commander's Handbook, Kriegsmarine publication number 1643, edition of 1943.
172.) If the range is over 1,000 m, or if there is uncertainty as regards the aiming data (high
speed of the enemy, several torpedoes (2, 3, or 4) should be released on the "fan" pattern. The
idea is to make sure of
one hit. It is better to score only one hit than to miss the target with each of several consecutive shots.
The target should therefore be covered by aiming at the boundaries a the area of dispersion on
the target; i.e., the shots should be spread by the width of the dispersion area in relation to one
shot aimed on the basis of the estimated data (if 2 or 4 shots are fired, in relation to an
imaginary middle shot).
So, according to the KM manual, the purpose of the salvo is not to hit with all torpedoes, but to ensure that at least one hits the target. By firing the 4-degree spread, our tolerable speed error increases from 27% to a whopping 45%.
Quote:
Finally, perhaps you're right that your average u-boat commander didn't care about the exact math involved. However, if we look at the list of the top 50 u-boat commanders at https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o...oat_commanders and arbitrarily pick 26 and 27 (about the middle of the most successful pack) we see that they are sinking about 3 ships per patrol and #29 drops to fewer than 2 ships per patrol.
So, basically, your average u-boat captain sucked. And if you do things the way he did, you'll suck too.
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So where is Kretschmer's treatise on the mathematics of the submerged approach? Where did Topp earn his PhD in Toppology? And what is your basis for claiming that what you do is any closer to Kretschmer's technique than to Rosenstiel's? Evidence, please.
Let's look at some of these commanders who you say "sucked." Because the names are familiar to anyone who knows the history of the U-boat war. Jenisch (26) sank 17 vessels in 6 patrols. Zapp (27) sank 16 in 5 patrols. Endrass (23) sank a "mere" 22 vessesl in 10 patrols. These were brave, seasoned, experienced naval commanders. Do not denigrate their performance just because you and I can achieve higher scores in a game which is a trivialization of the environment they fought in.
Now, you spent good money for your copy of the game, and you can play it any way you want. You can turn it into your high school science project in trigonometry if you wish. Or you can play at 27% realism (sic) and sink the entire British Navy every patrol. Whatever floats your (U-) boat.
But if I can use historically attested tactics and methods in this little game, and get results as good as Hardegen (rank 24, 22 ships in 5 patrols for 115, 656 tons), then I am having fun. If Hardegen sucked, and if Endrass and Jenisch and Zapp sucked, then well, I guess I suck too. It could be worse.
YMMV