Scotland only poll. A 1000 or so sample from 5 million is probably more accurate than 1000 from 64 million, which explains why polling in Scotland has been less "out" than in the UK as whole.
https://twitter.com/ShippersUnbound/...19168734064641
ST/Panelbase Scotland poll Change from 2015:
SNP 44% (-6)
Con 33% (+18)
Lab 13% (-11)
Lib Dems 5% (-2)
According to John Curtice, this is what this result would mean for seats at Westminster:
SNP 45 (-11)
Con 12 (+11)
Lab 0 (-1)
Lib Dem 2 (+1)
The kicker will be if the Tory vote is concentrated enough to actually have an effect in individual constituencies. So far they've got a lot of votes, but not actually concentrated enough to gain seats.
Ian Murray may actually
keep Edinburgh South (he's personally popular by all accounts) for Labour so that party might actually manage to retain at least one Scottish MP despite what the polling indicates.
Note however that this isn't a left/right voting pattern - people won't really be voting for the
Tories, they'll be voting to defend the
Union.
Unlike in the rest of the UK, for Scotland this election isn't about Brexit, it's about IndyRef2.
Mike.