Quote:
Originally Posted by ikalugin
US ABM would probably protect CONUS.
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*sigh*
Right, let's clear some things up. I've been on a research binge on North Korea and their abilities and non-abilities over the past two to three weeks and the following things have become increasingly clear.
1. Any military action against North Korea will cause them to launch their nuclear missiles. They have no way to tell if US missiles are aiming to decapitate the Kim regime or just hit their nuclear launch abilities, either way they will launch on warning, or launch on dead-hand. They have short range and medium range ballistic missiles, as well as
submarine launched ballistic missiles. These give them opportunities to get around the South Korean based THAAD system by either launching from the sea behind the THAADs radar and intercept radius, or by
lofting the missiles on a sharp trajectory from closer to the border so that their re-entry speed is higher than the THAAD system can intercept.
2. There are no guarantees that the AEGIS ships and systems in the region can intercept all of the missiles, North Korea has practiced
salvo firing ballistic missiles in order to flood the missile defence programs software with targets, much in the same way the Soviets planned to flood the carrier group with nuclear tipped ASMs from Oscar IIs and Tu-22Ms.
3.
AEGIS warships cannot intercept ICBMs.
4. The ICBM interceptor for the US is the
Ground-Based Midcourse Defence system in Alaska. It can handle a small amount of missiles. Currently there is no knowledge of how many ICBMs North Korea has, nor of their actual ability to get off the ground. Any interceptors launched from Alaska will either hit the target, or crash into Russia.
5. Estimates of North Koreas nuclear arsenal start at around 20. Reports indicate that North Korea has enough Lithium-6 to sell excess through shell companies in China. Therefore it's likely that the number is higher than 20.
6. The DPRK also has
biological and
chemical weaponry.
7. The DPRK has more than
1000 missiles of varying ranges.
8. The PRC
will not support US military action in North Korea.
So, what can we conclude from this?
That any military attack on North Korea will almost inevitably lead to the firing of most, if not all, of their missile stockpile at targets ranging from South Korea, Japan, Guam and potentially the United States, even if the ICBMs are untested. Since the majority of the missiles are road mobile it will be very hard for the US and its allies to hit all of the missiles at once, which means that some missiles will survive the initial strike and as soon as they realise what is happening they will launch on their pre-defined targets. Nuclear explosions will consume targets in South Korea, Japan and Guam, potentially missiles will also launch towards the continental United States. Depending on how many missiles are launched at the US and the destination of those missiles will depend on whether the GBMD system in Alaska can intercept them. There are forty missiles at Fort Greenly, which will be salvo fired at each incoming ICBM, once those forty missiles are fired, America is defenceless against incoming ICBMs. It's also questionable that the system can defend the US against ICBMs heading for the East Coast.
Furthermore any military action from the United States against North Korea may in turn provoke a response from the Peoples Republic of China. Whilst I think they will be loathe to defend the DPRK after it has nuked most of South-East Asia, they will equally be
incredibly loathe to see the DPRK removed and the buffer zone between American backed South Korea and the PRC border removed. Not to mention the potential for hordes of North Korea refugees heading across the border and destroying the PRCs economy. So if the US and the ROK (what's left of it) cross the 38th parallel and head north, expect China to head south...in force. China has more ICBMs and nuclear warheads than the DPRK, not to mention a hell of a lot more soldiers and better equipment. If the PRC enters the war on the Korean peninsula against the US and allies, the US and allies cannot win without going MacArthur, which will then escalate into the whole-sale destruction of the PRC and the United States.
So, war against the DPRK now or in the future is not a feasible prospect without significant casualties, and if the US public cannot handle the few casualties it has taken in Iraq and Afghanistan over the past decade and a half, it sure as hell won't handle the casualties it will take from the continuation of the Korean war.
Right, that's my info dump, do with it what you will. I'm out of here again.
