Quote:
Originally Posted by Schroeder
The whole thing leaves a lot of questions open. Why would Assad or the Russians use Sarin now? They are winning, so why use a weapon that will most likely trigger an incalculable risk? It just doesn't make sense. Assad has pretty much nothing to gain from that but everything to loose so why would he do that? Wouldn't it be more plausible that one of the losing parties in Syria wants a US intervention and therefore staged the whole thing?
Trump could surely use a military intervention to distract from his so far disastrous presidency...but intervening in Syria for that....I don't think even he would be that stupid after the glorious outcome of Iraq.  |
First, Assad can feel stroing and safe and thus may coincloude he can do whatever he wants, the West cvannot reach him or will not dare to interfere. After all, he did it before, so did the rebels, and there enver were any serious consequences, just words.
Second, I have no detialed image on my mind regarding the map, but if after the defeat at Aleppo Idlip lies in one of those remainign two or three regions where the rbeels still are poresnet and where the retretaring rebels from Alleppo moved to, the attack may be a sign that Syria now starts to go after the remains of the rebellion. Terrorising the civil population has always been part of this war, in an effort to make logistics and maintaining logistical order as hard as possibole for the enemy. Therefore the bombing of hospitals in Alleppo, maybe therefore the terror attacks against the civilian population in Idlip region. Its about increasing chaos and demoralization. If this works for the wanted effect, we most likely will see more of this, as there already has been more of this in the past years. Assad is not shy regarding doing what he thinks he miust, and Russia is not shy to let him and to protect him.
There are Iranian and Russian troops on the ground. Trumps' advisers hopefully will remind him of that. We should stay out of there, suppoort Jordan massiovely with logistical and fincial aid, and tighten the border to Turkey and the Mediterranean coast. A grim choice, I know. But the only that makes at least a remaining rest of sense to me. We also should stop all remaining support for the rebels. I do not see them winning anymore, and suppoorting them means to prolongue the war. This war is not winnable from POV of Western interest.
We should worry about Russia now setting its sights on Libya, and forming a restrengthening axis with Iran. We should also worry about Israel's detoriating strategic position.
These are all things that should be of far more concern and importance for the Europeans, than for the Americans. But I see neither the serious will, nor the needed means.