Here's my 2cent about Iran and their nuclear intentions...
Whenever we talk about Iran and the development of its nuclear arsenal, I don't think the threat imposed is of the nature that many claim... I seriously doubt that Iran will actually ever initiate official and openly offensive action against any other Non-Islamic country... here's why...
...think about it....Their religous fanaticism isn't new, its been going strong for years, yet their tally of openly warlike actions against their "enemies" has thus far been limited. They've wanted to attack Israel, but they don't; they've wanted to attack other nonIslamic countries, but they don't. They don't because they are fully aware of the the united and concerted effort against them that would swell and obliterate their countries to rubble and wilderness (something no leader would want since it would mean that they would loose their society as they know it, as well as the power/control they weld). They know this, they understand it, and their fantasticism has not reached the point that they are willing to seal the destruction of their nation and government...yet...
... what they *have* done is sanctioned, supported, and promoted the most underhanded, dirty, and insideous acts of violence on a continual "under the table" basis, as to carry out their agenda with as little risk to the sovereignty of their own government as possible. The development of Irans nuclear arsenal will probably follow the same lines... They know what would happen if they launched an openly obvious nuclear strike against any NonIslamic country... an even more fierce nuclear arsenal would be unleased upon them to the effect of the destruction of their land and cities... and IMHO is unlikely that they're leaders will ever feel stupid enough to do so. Despite their acquisition of a launching vehicle IMHO its still doubtful an open attack will ever come.
... but what *will* happen whenever nukes come to Iran is that the uranium will be handed down to insideous terrorist organizations with glandness and haste and a terrorist bomb will be detonated by an supposedly "seperate terrorist group" who just happened to "find" a nuke bomb. This is the most likely and dangerous case.
All that being said...
... IMHO the greatest deterent to try to prevent such a inevitable scenario from happening are the exact policies we are seeing right now in the form of US/British/other action against Afghanistan and Iraq. (Yes I said it, to the balking, grimacing, and scolding of many). The US/British have made a clear precedent that a backlash *will* (not if... will) come fiercely against governments that are traced to be connected to with any attack... to the extreme point that they have been willing to attack countries that they even think *might* be connected (i.e. Iraq) and have been shown willing to swipe an entire government hierachy off the map... This example being made, a precedent is being formed to inform the suppliers of such a weapon that they any involvement *will* be tracked down and the offending governments obliterated... with most likely not with the goal as the awkward and benign "peacekeeping" or "democracy bringing" that is shown now, but the goal of complete and utter *obliteration* of any signs of the former government/leaders/ industry or infrastructure...
... that being said the current Iraqi and Afghanistan policies being seen may be exactly the right choice to prevent such a nuclear travesty from happening.... hindsight is 20/20 and only time will tell.
|