The bill for the Trump effect starts to get footed.
Two years ago, the share of foreign, non-US holders of US treasuries, was around 55 or 56%. In the past weeks since the election and again since the inauguration, the biggest debtors of America, Japan and China, have started to sell their US treasuries drastically. By now, the share of foreign non-US holders of US treasuries has dropped to I red around 45, 46% . And this although US treasuries currently offer better interests than most other state's treasuries!
The US is dramatically depending on foreing money flushing into the debt-ridden US market. If this flow of fresh capital bogs down, Trump - and America - get problems. Serious problems.
I predict when US citizens in four years wil look at the financial math of their election decison last autumn, they will either not understand why what happened - or they will stare at it in shock and awe and will not believe it.
And let nobody tell you that the stockmarket are skyrocketing and the price indices are in stellar orbit. If you seriously believe that within a couple of years the value and worth of the real economy's companies and factories, services and products has multiplied by several factors like the stock values seem to imply, than nobody can help you.
Bubble game, round - which round are we in by now? I forgot.
Market is overheated, and hopelessly so. The central banks are pushing the bubbles around the globe like they play a ball on a football field, increasing them all the time. As I see it, by now anythign can happen just any time, in ten days, ten months or ten years - predictions have become impossible. Which describes a state of maximum uncertainty and unpredictability. And that means where you act on the grounds of what you believe is your stock market strategy, you indeed gamble. You can still win great money, yes - but not by reasonable long term strategy anymore, basing on past experiences that lead to the rules you read about - but mere luck.
And this is is not even already calculating in the crisis of the debt-papermoney as a failing system.
Trump may pull his show off, but in the end there will be coming a horrendous bill, much worse than the bill presented at the end of Reagan's reign - just on a much lower total level back then. Trump will add an exponent to it - or he crashlands already in the first half of his first term.
I recommend to stop investing for profit, and start to plan under the premise of that now is the time to start saving, protecting and conserving what you already have - to save it over the crisis coming, if possible. Small losses due to inflation you probably cannot void. Risk-free options are no longer existent as well. Have reserves so you can afford losses. If you haven't, may the Force be with you.
Once the shells start falling and the ground starts shaking, there is no safe place on the battlefield anymore. Nowhere.
Maybe it is just fair and just: those who have given Trump their vote, will most likely get hit the hardest by what is about to come down on America, and us all.
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If you feel nuts, consult an expert.
Last edited by Skybird; 02-13-17 at 12:22 PM.
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