Ok it seems quite possible via DbgView to predict a session in which there will be successful progression verses one in which progress won't work.
The key sequence once sat in the sub having loaded into a new campaign:
00012476 505.69955444 [11300] Page main StartGame
00012477 505.70025635 [11300] Menu StartGame
00012577 507.12063599 [11936] Entities.cpp (83): Process Message:
00012578 507.12097168 [11936] Entities.cpp (91): Init OSI user profile
00012579 507.12115479 [11936] Entities.cpp (123): succeeded
00012580 507.12133789 [11936] Entities.cpp (83): Process Message:
00012581 507.12145996 [11936] Entities.cpp (94): Init OSI campaign objective
00012582 507.12182617 [11936] Entities.cpp (123): succeeded
00012583 507.12188721 [11936] Entities.cpp (83): Process Message:
00012584 507.12219238 [11936] Entities.cpp (97): Init OSI map zones
00012585 507.12222290 [11936] Entities.cpp (123): succeeded
00012586 507.12246704 [11936] Entities.cpp (83): Process Message:
00012587 507.12274170 [11936] Entities.cpp (100): Init OSI campaign named entities
00012588 507.12277222 [11936] Entities.cpp (123): succeeded
00012589 507.12286377 [11936] Entities.cpp (83): Process Message:
00012590 507.12292480 [11936] Entities.cpp (114): OSI Ping
00012591 507.12301636 [11936] Entities.cpp (123): succeeded
00012592 507.14517212 [11300] Page ChalkBoard StartGame
00012593 507.15188599 [11300] PageChalkBoard's draggables restored!
00012595 507.94085693 [11936] Entities.cpp (83): Process Message:
00012596 507.94097900 [11936] Entities.cpp (109): OSI Eval campaign objectives
00012597 507.94104004 [11936] Entities.cpp (123): succeeded
The highlighted line also appears periodically throughout the session, and with the test scenario Vecko made, the campaign is a win some time during June 2nd.
If the highlighted line does NOT appear immediately after loading, then it seems the campaign will not progress.
At this time I've no real idea if this is solvable.
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