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Old 01-07-17, 06:58 AM   #2474
ikalugin
Ocean Warrior
 
Join Date: Aug 2014
Location: Moscow, Russia
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First to get the obvious out of the way:
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S300 may be an old orignal Sovjet design, envertheless it has seen notoriousnupdates and upgrades and today with latest upgrades and new missiles is one of the world's top notch air defence systems
Indeed S300 series did see upgrades during it's long history of usage. However that specific system in question (S300PS) uses the old (80s vintage) missiles (specifically 5V55R series). I can make a separate post on the modern and not so modern Russian SAMs, as it is quite complicated and your confusion is understandable.

Quote:
But Moscows reactions in past years moved beyond just taking on defensive needs for that enclave
Now, to the bone of the matter. My point still stands, if you compare forces stationed in Kaliningrad region specifically and on that axis in general in comparison to, say, relevant Polish forces you would see that the Russian presense in Kaliningrad is not overmatching.

Evidence - you can see from the sourcing (for example military balance 2016 page 196) that the Baltic Fleet has 2 mechanized brigades stationed in Kaliningrad area (one of those brigades is marked as a regiment but that regiment was expanded into a brigade in 2016). Compare it to the Polish mechanized division stationed against that force and you would notice that there is no over match.

Thus it appears that you are just inventing threat where none exists. I wonder why such an apparently inteligent person as yourself would do that.

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This cannot be just a reaciton to realistic fears for a sudden nATO attack : NATO simpyl lacks the military forces needed to attack Russia in the Baltic area, all of a sudden. And why should it even want that? In Russia, on the other hand, there is a clearly defined desire by many to restore the fame and glory of the good old empire, and to get back the buffer zone that the Warsaw Pact states once had officially been defined as. The way to do so, to get all that back, is destabilization of the West (split between Europe and the US, destabilizing the EU by any means, taking Germany out as opinion leader), and destabilization of the Baltic states and manipulation of global opinion.
And here we run into a political narrative. I believe that you would find it beneficial to this discussion to entertain the idea of mirrowing your view of Russia into the Russian view of NATO and then deconstruct exactly why and how we want to achieve our objectives.

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And where have we seen the textbook demonstration for a testrun for this kind of new warfare? Correct, during the Crimean conflict. A masterfully executed textbook example, I admire the precision of the execution.
Crimea was a one off operation, hinged on many unique factors, such as the stationing of Russian troops in the region before initiation of operations, mass pro Russian support, etc. It is stupid to project that unique one-off adhoc operation onto the likely future Russian operations.
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Last edited by ikalugin; 01-07-17 at 07:09 AM.
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